AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/21/2024: Gold rallies to new 1-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose another 1.7% to close above $2,672 despite upbeat jobless claims and increases in Treasury yields and the dollar as escalating turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East drove safe-haven demand. It was bullion’s fourth straight day of gains, taking it to a new one-week high. Silver slipped 0.1% to finish at $30.91 an oune.

First-time jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 219,000 last week, the lowest level in seven months, as employers are increasingly cautious about laying workers off. But the total number of ongoing claims rose exceeded 1.9 million for the first time since 2018, excluding pandemic years, meaning the unemployed are having difficulty finding new jobs.

Russia fired a barrage of long-range missiles into Ukraine in an initial retaliation for similar action by Ukraine earlier this week. Putin also lowered the threshold for using nuclear warheads in response to attacks with conventional weapons, substantially increasing the risk of a wider war.

Separately, the US vetoed a new cease-fire resolution for Gaza.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked up slightly as traders speculated that the falling first-time jobless claims may slow the Fed’s rate-cut cycle. Fed fund futures posit a 59% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction in December, down from 80% little more than a week ago.

The dollar rose 0.4% to a fresh one-year high against major rivals on safe-haven inflows because geopolitical tensions and the shifting rate outlook.

Platinum slid 0.7% while palladium rose by the same amount.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $45 to $2,672.10; silver slipped 3 cents to $30.91; platinum dropped $7 to $966; and palladium picked up $7.60, to $1,044.90 an ounce.

11/20/2024: Gold rises for third day

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose another 0.9% to close at $2,650 despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the dollar as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia pushed investors into safe havens. Bullion’s third straight day of gains brought it o a one-week high. Silver slipped 1% to finish at $30.90 an ounce.

Geopolitical tension escalated this week after Ukraine fired long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, prompting Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Gold is often bought as a hedge against global turmoil.

The dollar rebound from three lower sessions by adding 0.4% against major rivals on the combination of safe-haven inflows because of Russia and speculation that the Fed might be less inclined to keep lowering interest rates.

Upbeat recent US data and concerns that President-elect Trump’s protectionist economic policies may prove inflationary have caused Fed funds traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut to 63%, down from more than 80% a week ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also reversed their recent slide, pushing back above 4.4%.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $22.90 to $2,650; silver slipped 30 cents to $30.90; platinum shed $14 to $959.20; and palladium dropped $15.20 to $1,022 an ounce.

11/19/2024: Gold rises on Russia tension

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.6% to close above $2,627 as heightened tension in the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove global demand for safe-haven assets. Bullion has gained nearly 2.5% in the past two sessions. Silver added 0.2% to finish at $31.21 an ounce.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine stating that any major ariel attack on Russia could result in the use of nuclear weapons. The shift comes after Ukraine fired US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 4.4% as investors sought safety in government bonds. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, yen, and US dollar also saw inflows, with the buck rising around 0.1% against major rivals.

Despite last week’s election-induced selloff, gold remains supported by strong central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical volatility, and expanding deficits in the US and other major nations. Gold fell sharply last week after Donald Trump’s re-election fueled a massive rally in the dollar, pressuring alternative stores of value.

Platinum and palladium picked up 0.6% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $16.50 to $2,627.10; silver added a nickel, to $31.21; platinum rose $5.40 to $974.50; and palladium advanced $29.10 to $1,037.30 an ounce.

11/18/2024: Gold surges on haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.8% to close above $2,610 as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated while investors sought safety from increasing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It was bullion’s first advance in six sessions. Silver rose 2.4% to finish at $31.10 an ounce.

The Biden administration will allow Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to strike deeper in Russia, adding a new and potentially dangerous element to the conflict. The change in policy comes in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of government bonds. Lower yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking with yields, the dollar shed 0.4% against major rivals, it second down session after hitting a one-year high last Thursday. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, boosting demand overseas.

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on the Biden missile decision, which would enable Ukraine to reach crude production facilities in Russia, a major oil producer. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.9% and 6.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $44.90 to $2,610.60; silver rose 72 cents to $3.10; platinum picked up $27.40 to $967.20; and palladium jumped $64.90 to $1,008.20 an ounce.

11/15/2024: Gold has worst week in 3 years

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.1% to close at $2,566 after surprisingly strong US data and hawkish comments from Jerome Powell shifted the outlook for interest rates. Bullion fell 4.5% for the week, its biggest weekly retreat in three years, following the dollar’s sharp rally on the re-election of Donald Trump. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $30.37 an ounce, posting a weekly decline of 3.2%.

Retail sales increased 0.4% in October, more than forecast, and September’s total was revised up to 0.8%, twice the rise initially reported. With retail sales contributing the lion’s share of consumer spending, which itself comprises 70% of GDP, the data signal strong underlying momentum in the US economy.

Separately, the New York Empire State index of business conditions, an important gauge of manufacturing activity, surged in November to the highest level in nearly three years.

The upbeat reports come one day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to business leaders in Dallas, said the economy’s current strength means the Fed does not “need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

Fed fund futures traders have lowered their bets on a December rate cut, dropping the odds to 60% from 72% yesterday and 86% one month ago.

The dollar edged up slightly to the highest level in more than a year as traders brace for a slower cycle of rate cuts and the possibility of rekindled inflation because of Trump tariffs. A stronger dollar weighs on gold by making it more expensive in other currencies, stifling demand overseas.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also ticked higher, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum dropped 0.1% today and 2.9% this week. Palladium lost 1.9% for a weekly loss of 5.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.20 to $2,566; silver slipped 14 cents to $30.37; platinum edged down $1.10 to $941.15; and palladium shed $17.60 to $943.30 an ounce.

11/14/2024: Gold dips as dollar rises

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.5% to close near $2,568 as wholesale inflation ticked up in October and the dollar extended its impressive post-election rally. Silver dipped 0.3% to finish at $30.51 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.2% in October, as expected, lifting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate from 1.9% in September to 2.3%, the highest level in four months. The core rate, less food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 3.5% for the past 12 months, up from 3.3% in September.

The dollar continued its aggressive climb, adding another 0.2% to reach a new one-year high against major rivals, as traders weighed the effects of reinflation and the coming Trump administration on the Fed’s ability to reduce interest rates further. Trump’s promise of large, blanket tariffs is widely viewed as inflationary.

A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Cushioning gold’s drop, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped from four-month highs as stock markets receded on the shifting outlook for interest rates, prompting demand for safe havens. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds.

Platinum added 0.3% while palladium subtracted 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $16.20 to $2,568.20; silver slipped 8 cents to $30.51; platinum picked up $2.65 to $942.25; and palladium dipped ^.30 to $925.70 an ounce.

11/13/2024: Gold falls for fourth session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell another 0.7% to close under $2,581 after a mild increase in the annual CPI lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, pressuring alternative assets. It was bullion’s fourth straight down session. Silver slipped 10 cents to $30.59 an ounce.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% in October, as forecast, lifting the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6% from 2.4% in September. While in line with expectations, it was the first annualized increase since March. The narrower core rate, stripping out food and energy, increased 0.3% to hold at 3.3% for 12 months.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to the highest level since early July as traders brace for the onset of inflationary policies from President-elect Trump. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added another 0.4% to hit a one-year high against major rivals. A stronger dollar is a headwind for gold and other commodities because it makes them more expensive in other currencies.

President Trump’s promises of blanket tariffs on imports are expected to increase prices to consumers. In addition, his plan a=calling for the mass deportation of immigrants could reduce the labor force for low-paying jobs, and thereby raise labor costs that would be passed along to consumers.

Platinum and palladium fell 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $19.20 to $2,580.80; silver slid a dime to $30.39; platinum shed $1.95 to $940.95; and palladium slid $8.90 to $932 an ounce.

11/12/2024: Gold falls to 8-week low

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell another 0.4% to close at $2,600, the lowest level since late September, as Treasury yields rose and the dollar rallied, pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver slipped 15 cents to finish at $30.69 an ounce.

A second Trump administration is expected to deliver tax cuts and deregulation that could drive incomes and corporate profits higher. Combined with the blanket tariffs promised by the President-elect, these policies also have the potential to be highly inflationary, slowing the Fed’s process of unwinding the highest interest rates in a generation.

The dollar added another 0.5% to reach a five-month high against major rivals of the shifting rate view. Tomorrow’s release of the October CPI should provide greater clarity on the current inflation outlook.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a four-month high above 4.4% as investors continued to shift out of safe-haven assets like government debt and gold.

Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds, while a stronger dollar makes gold and other commodities more expensive overseas, reducing demand.

Platinum fell 1.7% while palladium shed 4.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $11.20 to $2,600; silver slipped 15 cents to $30.69; platinum pulled back by $16.60 to $947.60; and palladium retreated $41.40 to $940.90 an ounce.

11/11/2024: Gold tumbles on risk rally

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — With banks and bond markets closed for Veterans Day, New York spot gold tumbled 2.8% as the dollar rallied further and rising risk appetite pulled monies away from safe havens. Silver dropped 2.6% to finish at $30.54 an ounce.

With Republicans winning control of the White House and Senate, and with the undecided House likely to tilt GOP, the markets are betting that rollbacks in taxes and regulations will drive risk assets sharply higher. Wall Street was mixed for the day, all three main indexes are hovering near all-time highs after Donald Trump's decisive re-election.

The dollar rallied another 0.5% against major rivals, reaching the highest level in five months on expectations that tariffs and tax cuts, Trump's primary economic policies, will be inflationary and limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Plunging oil prices also pressured bullion as WTI crude lost 3.2% on the stronger dollar and worries that China's recently announced stimulus program will do little to revive demand in the world's leading manufacturer. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against rising energy prices.

Platinum and palladium shed 1% each.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $76.30 to $2,611.20; silver slid 82 cents to $31.54; platinum dropped $9.30 to $964.30; and palladium retreated by $9.90 to $982.30 an ounce.

11/8/2024: Gold declines on dollar strength

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.4% to close under $2,688 as the dollar rebounded on uncertainty over the economic policies of a second Trump administration, pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion lost 1.9% for the week, its worst in more than five months. Silver lost 1.3% today and 3.4% this week to finish at $31.36 an ounce.

After easing in the aftermath of the Fed's quarter-point rate cut, the dollar resumed its aggressive rally, adding 0.6% against major rivals to climb near a four-month high. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them pricier in other currencies.

The main driver of the dollar's strong performance is the re-election of Donald Trump, whose campaign policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes are expected to promote both economic growth and inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell further as traders hedged against the uncertainty of whether the next Trump term will, indeed, put his campaign promise into practice.

Platinum fell 2.4% for the session and 2.3% for the week. Palladium dropped 2.8% for a weekly decline of 11%.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $10.90 to $2,687.50; silver lost 41 cents to $31.36; platinum gave back $24, $968.80; and palladium retreated $28.50 to $992.20 an once.