AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

2/21/2025: Gold rallies for 8th straight week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was nearly flat, dipping less than 0.1% to hold just under $2,938, as traders shaved a little profit from yesterday's all-time high of $2,940 despite weak US data and plunging Treasury yields. For the week, bullion rallied 1.9% for its eight consecutive weekly increase. Silver also dipped less than 0.1%, finishing at $32.97 and posting a weekly rise of 0.5%.

US consumer sentiment plunged by 10% in February to the lowest level since November 2023 as Americans grow increasingly worried about Trump administration trade and cost-cutting policies and their consequences for inflation and the economy.

Separately, US business activity nearly came to a halt in February amid uncertainty over aggressive tariff policies and deep cuts in federal spending. The S&P Global PMI index showed manufacturing and services fell to a 17-month low of 50.4, where anything under 50 indicates contraction.

All three major US equity indexes tumbled on the data. The Dow and S&P 500 lost 1.7% while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 2.1%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back to just over 4.4% as investors shifted away from risk into the perceived safety of US government debt. Falling yields are bullish for gold because they decrease the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Pressuring gold, the dollar added 0.2% against major rivals after the euro receded on a surprising contraction in business activity in France, the eurozone's second-largest economy.

Demand for physical gold in the US has skyrocketed since inauguration day, fueled by uncertainty generated by aggressive Trump tariffs, huge cuts in the Federal workforce, and a significant reordering of US foreign policy. Global central banks are also adding strongly to holdings of gold reserves, further lifting prices.

Platinum lost 0.9% for the day and 1.2% for the week. Palladium slipped 0.3% for a weekly decline of 0.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.40 to $2,937.60; silver slipped 2 cents to $32.97; platinum fell $8.70 to $971.30; and palladium shed $3.10 to $981.40 an ounce.

2/20/2025: Gold rallies to new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 0.7% to close at a new record high of $2,940 on safe-haven inflows as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated on economic and geopolitical uncertainty. Bullion has risen 12% so far this year to a series of new all-time highs, driven by uncertainty over the disruptive policies of the Trump administration. Silver as flat at $32.99 an ounce.

President Trump announced that he will enact new tariffs on pharmaceuticals, autos, lumber, and semiconductors "over the next month or sooner." These will come atop the 10% tariffs on all Chinese imports, 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum, and reciprocal tariffs on all current trading partners.

Tariffs of 25% on all imports from Mexico and Canada imports, intended to force them into stopping immigrants and fentanyl at the borders, were postponed for 30 days.

The possibility of trade wars and higher inflation caused by these aggressive policies are fueling demand for gold as a currency of last resort. In addition, the radical restructuring of the federal government is creating uncertainty within markets.

Gold exports from Switzerland to the US rose to the highest level in 13 years, according to Swiss customs data.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4.5% as investors sought safety in government bonds. Falling yields help gold by reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking with yields, the dollar lost 0.7% against major rivals, boosting gold by making it cheaper overseas.

Platinum picked up 0.7% while palladium slipped 0.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.60 to $2,940; silver was flat at $32.99; platinum added $6.50, to $980; and palladium dipped $2.80 to $984.50 an ounce.

2/19/2025: Gold eases after Fed minutes

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased 0.4% to close under $2,920 after slightly hawkish minutes from the last Fed meeting lifted the dollar, pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion rose to a new all-time high above $2,941 earlier in the session before slipping back on profit-taking. Silver fell 1% to finish at $32.99 an ounce.

Fed members registered concern that tariffs and other new White House policies could be inflationary and slow progress toward reaching their 2% target. The aggressive alteration of regulatory, immigration, fiscal, and trade policies may have unanticipated consequences for the economy, according to the Fed minutes, making further rate cuts less likely for now.

The dollar rose 0.1% against major rivals as traders shifted away from risk-related currencies toward safe-haven ones like the buck and yen. S rising dollar weighs on gold by making it pricier overseas.

Platinum slid 0.8% while palladium was little changed.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $12.20 to $2,919,49; silver shed 32 cents to $32.99; platinum dropped $7.60 to $973.50; and palladium added a dime, to $987.30 an ounce.

2/18/2025: Gold jumps to new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Reopening after the Presidents Day holiday, New York spot gold jumped 1.7% to a fresh all-time high near $2,932 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as traders sought shelter from Trump tariffs and other disruptive policies. Silver added 1.6% to finish at $33.32 an ounce.

The White House has threatened new tariffs on the EU because of trade surpluses, prompting concerns that the aggressive levies will damage global growth and undermine the US economy while increasing prices paid by US consumers.

Separately, uncertainty over Ukraine peace negotiations between the US and Russia without the participation of Ukraine is also fueling safe-haven bids. Russia is reportedly demanding that NATO disavow its 2008 promise of membership for Ukraine at some point in the future. The White House has published no position or guidance.

US homebuilder sentiment plunged to a five-month low on worries that tariffs will drive up construction costs and inflation, resulting in lower profits and higher mortgage costs.

Gold is often sought as a hedge against political and economic uncertainty.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury ticked back over 4.5% after the Reserve Bank of Australia cut interest rates, prompting a minor selloff of government debt in the US, UK, Germany and Australia. Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.4% against major rivals.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.2% and 1.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold rallied $48 to close at $2.931.60; silver climbed 52 cents to $33.32; platinum dipped $2.10 to $981.20; and palladium shed $13.90 to $987.20 an ounce.

2/14/2025: Gold rises for 7th straight week

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.4% to close below $2,884 despite weak US data, sharply lower Treasury yields, and a softer dollar as traders took profits from this week’s rally to new all-time highs. Bullion still gained 0.6% for the week, notching its seventh straight weekly increase. Silver slid 0.5% to close at $32.80 while posting a weekly rise of 1.4%.

US retail sales fell 0.9% in January, the most in nearly two years, suggesting anemic economic growth to start 2025. Retail sales are a fundamental measure of consumer spending, which accounts for around 70% of GDP.

US manufacturing output also fell unexpectedly last month, reversing a recovery that began with lower interest rates in Q4. President Trump’s protectionist trade policies are expected to further undermine the manufacturing rebound by interrupting supply chains and raising prices on raw materials.

Fed fund futures traders upped their bets on rate cuts from the Fed after the soft data prints. CME FedWatch now projects 40 basis points of cuts by September, up from around 20 a few days ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply to under 4.5% as investors sought safety from the increasing likelihood of damaging trade wars by piling into government bonds. The dollar retreated 0.4% to post a weekly loss of 1.2%.

Platinum dropped 0.9% today but gained 0.8% this week. Palladium shed 0.9% but still posted a 1.4% weekly increase.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $42.30 to $2,883.60; silver slipped 15 cents to $32.80; platinum dropped 8.70 to $983.20; and palladium retreated 8.80 to $989.40 an ounce.

2/13/2025: Gold hits new record on tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 0.6% to close at a new record high near $2,926 as mixed inflation data and worries over tariffs spurred flights to safety while pressuring Treasury yields and the dollar. Silver dipped 0.2% to finish at $32.65 an ounce.

The producer price index climbed 0.4% in January, more than forecast, to lift the 12-month rate for wholesale inflation to 3.5% from 3.3% in December. The so-called core rate, minus food and energy, rose a more modest 0.3%, dropping the 12-month rate to 3.4% from 3.5%.

The data followed yesterday’s CPI print showing that consumer inflation rose 0.5% in January, the most in 18 months.

However, subcomponents within the PPI report indicate that core personal consumption expenditures, the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, are rising more slowly than the CPI. The softer core PCE data prompted traders to increase their rate-cut bets to 33 basis points by December, up from 29 basis points yesterday, according to CME FedWatch.

Separately, President Trump laid out his plans for reciprocal tariffs against all trading partners, including EU countries that have a Value Added Tax, which is essentially a sales tax, on all consumer goods. Economists have warned that the aggressive tariff plans are inflationary and risk trade wars that could damage the US economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields tumbled 8 basis points on flights to safety after the tariff announcement, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Platinum fell 3.7% while palladium rose 1.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $16.90 to $2,925.90; silver slipped a nickel to $32.65; platinum shed $39.50 to $999.20; and palladium picked up $16.40 to $997.20 an ounce.

2/12/2025: Gold steady after hot CPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was nearly flat, dipping 0.1% to close at $2,909, as safe-haven inflows driven by trade-war fears offset pressure from sharply higher Treasury yields driven by hot CPI data. Silver gained 1.5% to finish at $32.70 an ounce.

The consumer price index rose 0.5% in January, the most in 18 months, lifting the annual rate to 3%. The so-called core rate, removing food and energy costs, increased 0.4% to lift the annual rate to 3.3%.

The hotter-than-expected data shifts the outlook for interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking committee yesterday that the Fed was in “no hurry” to cut rates further. Coupled with the inflationary threat of pending tariffs, today’s CPI release could spell the end of the current rate-cut cycle altogether.

The White House said today that reciprocal tariffs will be imposed this week on all trading partners who impose tariffs on US exports. The new levies come atop the 25% to be applied to all steel and aluminum imports and the 10% on Chinese imports. An additional 25% on all goods from Canada and Mexico are on temporary hold.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped by nearly 10 basis points, the most this year, to more than 4.6% on the hawkish rate view. Higher yields typically weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds. But today this headwind was offset by demand for bullion as a hedge against the economic uncertainty and inflationary pressures of Trump administration trade policies.

Platinum picked up 1.2% while palladium fell 0.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $3.50 to $2,909; silver surged 47 cents to $32.70; platinum rose $11.80 to $1,038.70; and palladium shed $6.10 to $980.80 an ounce.

2/11/2025: Gold eases from all-time high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold eased slightly, dipping less than 0.1% to hold above $2,912 as new Trump tariffs lifted Treasury yields, spurring traders to take profits from bullion’s record rally. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $32.23 an ounce.

President Trump today raised tariffs on aluminum and steel to 25% “without exceptions or exemption” in a bid to rejuvenate US industries. The measures take effect on March 12, affecting millions of tons of imports from Canada, Brazil, South Korean, Mexico, and elsewhere.

In addition, the President reiterated his intention to levy “reciprocal tariffs” on all trading partners including the EU.

Economists warn that the draconian policies risk higher inflation and trade wars that will undercut US and global economic growth. European Commission head Von der Leyen said the tariffs “will trigger firm and appropriate countermeasures.” Canadian PM Justin Trudeau said the tariffs are “unacceptable” and will result in a “clear and firm” response.

Separately, Fed Chair Jerome Powell told the Senate Banking Committee today that the US economy is on solid footing and the central bank doesn’t “need to be in a hurry” to cut interest rates further. However, he added that waiting too long “could unduly weaken economic activity and employment.”

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.5% as traders weighed Powell’s mildly hawkish remarks. Higher yields pressure gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The markets will look towards tomorrow’s CPI release for additional pointers on the possible direction of interest rates.

Platinum and palladium slipped 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold edged down $1.80 to $2,912.50; silver shed 16 cents to $32.23; platinum retreated $3.30 to $987.10; and palladium dipped $1 to $986.80 an ounce.

2/10/2025: Gold rockets past $2,900

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surpassed $2,900 for the first time ever, rocketing 1.6% higher to finish above $2,914 on safe-haven inflows after the White House announced yet more tariffs, triggering new concerns about inflation and global trade. It was the seventh record close this year for bullion. Silver added 0.2% to finish at $32.29 an ounce.

President Trump said yesterday that he will impose new 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminum imports, separate from the 25% already promised against Canada and Mexico in less than 30 days. Furthermore, he will place reciprocal tariffs imports from China, Japan, Taiwan, and the EU.

Economists have warned that the large levies on imported goods would boost prices to businesses and consumer just as the Fed is making progress toward lowering inflation. In addition, retaliatory tariffs could chill trade and harm global growth.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped on flights to safety, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals as traders speculated that higher tariffs would prevent the Fed from cutting interest rates.

Platinum and palladium added 1.6% and 1.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $47 to $2,914.39; silver added 6 cents, $32.39; platinum picked up $15.15 to $990.40; and palladium rose $13.25 to $987.80 an ounce.

2/7/2025: Gold notches 2% weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added 0.4% to close at a new record high above $2,867 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors continue to seek protection from the uncertainty surrounding Trump administration tariff policies. Bullion surged 2% this week to mark six straight weeks of gains. Silver slid 0.6% to finish at $32.34 for a weekly rise of 0.7%.

The much-anticipated federal nonfarm payrolls report showed 143,000 new jobs were added in January, shy of the 170,000 forecast, while November and December figures were revised higher by a total of 100,000. The unemployment rate dropped to 4% from 4.1% in December.

The mixed job report gives the Fed cover to take its time with additional rate cuts. Fed fund futures traders now we a 92% chance the Fed stands pat in March, up from 82% yesterday.

Speaking today, several Fed officials said the ongoing resilience of the labor market and uncertainty surrounding the consequences of tariffs for inflation and economic growth puts them in no hurry to further reduce interest rates.

Separately, consumer sentiment fell sharply in February as Americans grow increasingly worried about the fallout from Trump tariffs. Inflation expectations over the next year jumped to 4.3% from 3.3% in January.

Meanwhile, the Whie House said today that it will levy “reciprocal tariffs” on all trading partners who put tariffs on US imports. These new duties are on top of the 10% tariffs already pointed at China and the 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canda that have been postponed for 30 days.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged up slightly but held under 4.5% on the slightly hawkish rate view. Tracking with yields the dollar added 0.4%.

Platinum fell 1.1% for the day and 0.7% for the week. Palladium lost 0.9% for a weekly loss of 3.9%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained #11.30 to $2,867.30; silver slid 18 cents to $32.34; platinum shed $11 to $975.25; and palladium dropped $8.50 to $974.50 an ounce.