AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

1/17/2025: Gold scores third weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold inched down less than 0.1% to hold near a one-month high above $2,744 as an uptick in the dollar prompted traders to take profits from the metal's three-day rally. Bullion finished the week with a gain of 1.3% for its third straight weekly win. Silver slid 1.8% for the day and 0.5% for the week, finishing at $30.95 an ounce.

This week’s surprisingly soft data on wholesale, core consumer, and import prices have shifted the outlook for inflation and interest rates, breathing new life into the gold price.

Entering the week, traders anticipated just 30 basis points in rate cuts for all of 2025. This hawkish view, the result of a stronger-than-expected US economy and a few months of rising inflation, lifted yields to a 10-month peak and the dollar to its highest level in two years, pressuring gold in turn.

But the outlook has shifted because of softer inflation. Fed funds futures traders are now pricing in 50 basis points of rate cuts for this year, according to CME FedWatch. Meanwhile, Fed Governor Christopher Waller said three or four quarter-point rate cuts this year are reasonable if inflation continues to moderate.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury were little-changed today but sharply lower for the week on the changing rate outlook. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar picked up 0.3% for the day but fell 0.6% for the week, lifting gold by making it cheaper in other currencies.

Traders are bracing for market volatility next week following the inauguration of President-elect Trump on Monday. As many as 100 executive orders are expected on his first day in office, including blockbuster policies on tariffs and immigration that could disrupt the economy.

Platinum gained 1.8% for the day but lost 3.2% for the week. Palladium rose 0.8% for a weekly gain of 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.10 to $2,744.30; silver shed 57 cents to $30.95; platinum picked up $16.80 to $951.10; and palladium added $8, to $958.30 an ounce.

1/16/2025: Gold surges 1.2% to month high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose for a third session, surging another 1.2% to close at a one-month high above $2,746 after mixed US data and dovish comments from a Fed official pressured Treasury yields and the dollar, boosting alternative assets. Silver rose 0.6% to finish at $31.52 an ounce.

Retail sales rose 0.4% in December and November totals were revised higher. suggesting the economy entered 2025 with some momentum. December print fell slightly short of forecasts.

Separately, first-time jobless claims jumped to 217,000 last week, in part because of California wildfires.

The prices of imported goods rose by just 0.1% in December for the third straight month, putting the 12-month increase at 2.2%. Combined with this week’s soft readings on wholesale and core consumer prices, the inflation outlook has become increasingly benign following the uptick during spring and summer.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller told CNBC today that it’s reasonable to expect three or four quarter-point rate cuts this year, given weakening inflation, with most coming in the first half of the year.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back to a one-month low near 4.6% as traders speculated that the Fed will be more proactive with its rate-cut cycle. Fed fund futures traders are now pricing in 50 basis points of cuts in 2025, down from 30 just a week ago. Lower yields help gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar slipped 0.1% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper to foreign buyers.

Platinum and palladium picked up 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $33.90 to $2,746.49; silver rose 20 cents to $31.52; platinum added %.60, to $939.90; and palladium advanced $6.85 to $947.55 an ounce.

1/15/2025: Gold rallies on softer inflation

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.3% to close above $2,712 after a tamer-than-expected CPI shifted the calculus for rate cuts from the Fed, pressuring yields and the dollar. Silver surged 3.9% to finish at $31.32 an ounce.

The consumer price index increased 0.4% in December, as expected, lifting the 12-month rate to 2.9% from 2.7% in November. A huge jump in energy costs accounted for 40% of the increase, which was the biggest since July.

However, the more-important core CPI, factoring out food and energy costs, rose merely 0.2%, lowering the 12-month rate to 3.2% from 3.3% in November. Combined with yesterday’s soft PPI report, which showed wholesale inflation slowing, the CPI data suggested that underlying inflation is subsiding after several months of stubborn stickiness.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell sharply as traders speculated that the Fed will now be more inclined to cut interest rates this year. Lower yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar pulled back 0.2%, lifting gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum slipped 0.5% while palladium advanced 3.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $35 to $2,712.50; silver jumped $1.19 to $31.32; platinum dipped $4.90 to $931.30; and palladium picked up $29 to $969.70 an ounce.

1/14/2025: Gold rises on softer PPI

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up 0.1% to close at $2,677.50 after softer-than-expected wholesale inflation pressured yields and the dollar, boosting alternative stores of value. Silver also added 0.1% to finish at $30.13 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.2% in December, half as much as forecast, suggesting that the upswing in prices over the past few months might be ending. The so-called core rate, less food and energy, rose just 0.1%. The PPI, which measures wholesale prices in the pipeline, tends to front-run consumer inflation by several months.

Tomorrow’s release of the CPI will give a better sense of the current condition of prices to consumers.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury dipped slightly after the PPI release as traders speculated that moderating inflation might convince the Fed to continue cutting interest rates. Lower rates boost gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar retreated 0.7% but hovered near a two-year high, helping gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Platinum dropped 2.4% while palladium rose 1.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4 to $2,677.50; silver added 4 cents, to $30.13; platinum shed $22.75 to $939.35; and palladium picked up $11.55 to +$946.35 an ounce.

1/13/2025: Gold falls on hawkish rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.3% to close under $2,674 as traders took profits from last week’s 2.4% rally after Treasury yields and the dollar climbed on expectations that the Fed will make fewer rate cuts this year. Silver dropped 3.2% to finish at $30.09 an ounce.

Surprisingly strong US job growth in December, which saw nonfarm payrolls adding 256,000 new jobs and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.1%, has caused the markets to reassess what the Fed might do about interest rates this year. Fed fund futures now project just 25 basis points in cuts for the year, down from 50 basis points a week ago.

In addition, the tariff policies of the incoming Trump administration, if enacted, promise to raise prices on US consumers and further undermine the Fed’s rate-cut cycle. While gold is often sought as a hedge against also of purchasing power during inflationary times, it also comes under pressure from high interest rates and a strong dollar.

This week’s release of the December CPI and retail sales data should give further clues about the course of the economy and interest rates.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept near 4.8% on the hawkish rate view, weighing on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking with yields, the dollar rose 0.3% to a two-year higher against major rivals. A stronger buck is a headwind for gold and other commodities because it makes them pricier in other currencies, curtailing demand overseas.

Platinum and palladium lost 2% and 1.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $35 to $2,673.50; silver slid $1 to $30.09; platinum dropped $20 to $962.10; and palladium shed $16.50 to $945 an ounce.

1/10/2025: Gold tops $2,700 on inflation fears

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged another 0.9% to close above $2,708 as strong jobs data, rising inflation expectations, and worries about tariffs stoked demand for hedges against economic uncertainty. Gaining 2.4% for the week, bullion closed above $2,700 for the first time since early December. Silver climbed 1% for the day and 4.1% for the week to finish at $31.09 an ounce.

The government’s December nonfarm payrolls report showed 256,000 jobs created last month, far more than the forecast of 155,000. Although totals for November were revised lower, the unemployment rate still dropped to 4.1% from 4.2% the previous month.

While surprising strength in the labor market is good for the economy, it creates more headaches for the Fed in its battle against inflation. A tight labor market typically drives up payroll costs, which are then passed along to consumers as higher prices.

Indeed, US consumers are anticipating sharply higher inflation this year. According to the University of Michigan survey, consumer sentiment is falling because Americans expect inflation to rise to 3.3% in 2025, up from 2.8% last month. Inflation expectations are often self-fulfilling, as people buy more products now to avoid higher prices later, which drives up prices.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields and the dollar both rose on speculation that the Fed will be forced into shallower rate cuts this year. Fed fund futures traders now see just 30 basis points of cuts in 2025, down from nearly 50 before the data.

While higher yields and a stronger dollar typically weigh on gold, all three rose in tandem as traders focused on hedging against the threat of higher inflation.

Adding to demand for bullion, investors are broadly concerned that the blanket tariffs proposed by the incoming Trump administration may added to inflationary pressures and possibly cause trade wars, undermining the remarkable strength of the economy.

Platinum rose 1.2% today and 4.4% this week. Palladium jumped 3% for a weekly rise of 2%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $24.70 to $2,708.50; silver climbed 30 cents to $31.09; platinum picked up $11.80 to $982.10; and palladium advanced $27.60 to $951.50 an ounce.

1/9/2025: Gold rallies for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.7% to close near $2,684 as concerns about the policies of the incoming Trump administration stoked safe-haven demand despite a stronger dollar. It was bullion’s third straight day of gains and highest finish in four weeks. Silver surged 1.1% to end at $30.79 an ounce.

President-elect Trump said he may invoke emergency powers to provide legal justification for unilateral tariffs on virtually all trading partners. The statement was a direct reversal of reports earlier in the week that he may selectively target imports that pertain to economic and national security.

The proposed tariffs are widely expected to raise prices for US consumers and potentially trigger trade wars with allies and adversaries alike. Gold is often sought as a hedge against economic uncertainty and loss of purchasing power.

The World Gold Council reported yesterday that bullion-backed gold ETFs saw their first increase in investment in four years.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated from an eight-month high as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of US government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Gold’s gains again came despite a stronger dollar, which rose 0.1% against major rivals as forex traders anticipate shallower rate-cuts because of the inflationary potential of Trump policies. A rising buck typically weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum added less than 0.1% while palladium picked up 1.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $19.30 to $2,683.80; silver surged 34 cents to $30.79; platinum added 50 cents, to $970.30; and palladium advanced $12.95 to $934.45 an ounce.

1/8/2025: Gold rises on soft ADP data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.3% to close at nearly a four-week high above $2,664 despite a stronger dollar as soft private payrolls data and comments from a Fed official lifted optimism that the central bank may continue cutting interest rates in 2025. Silver added 0.4% to finish at $30.45 an ounce.

ADP reported the US economy added just 122,000 jobs in the private sector in December, fewer than estimates of around 140,000. The pace of job creation is a focal point of Fed policy as it weighs further rate cuts. More job creation implies low unemployment, which tends to drive inflation higher.

Fed Governor Christopher Waller said today that inflation should continue falling this year and allow the Fed to reduce interest rates further. But he echoed the minutes of the Fed’s December meeting in acknowledging the risk of further inflation because of looming tariffs.

This Friday’s release of the government’s nonfarm payrolls report will give a more authoritative outlook on the strength of the labor market and hence the rate outlook.

Capping gold’s rise, the dollar rose 0.4% against major rivals on reports that President-elect Trump will invoke emergency measures to give him the legal footing to unilaterally impose new tariffs on allies and adversaries alike. A rising dollar is a headwind for gold because it makes bullion more expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium picked up 0.7% and 2.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $7.80 to $2,664.50; silver added 11 cents, to $30.45; platinum rose $7 to $969.80; and palladium advanced $24.30 to $933.90 an ounce.

1/7/2025: Gold gains on inflation worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close near $2,657 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as solid US economic data rekindled concerns about inflation. Bullion is often seen as a hedge against loss of purchasing power. Silver shed 0.9% to finish at $30.07 an ounce.

Government data showed the number of US job openings rose to a six-month high in November, suggesting that the labor market might be rebounding after a few soft months.

Separately, the ISM reported the prices paid by services companies rose to the highest level in two years at the end of last year, rekindling fears of inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed after the data, curtailing gold’s gains. The dollar also edged higher on expectations that the Fed will be forced to slow its rate-cut cycle because of sticky inflation and the prospect of higher tariffs with the Trump administration.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.30 to $2.656.70; silver slid 27 cents to $30.07; platinum rose $33.50 to $962.80; and palladium picked up $23.10 to $932.70 an ounce.

1/6/2025: Gold dips on tariff confusion

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% as Treasury yields rose ahead of key economic data this week, prompting traders to take profits from bullion’s 1.1% rally last week. Conflicting reports about President-elect Trump’s plans for tariffs also stirred the markets. Silver rose 54 1.8% to finish at $30.34 an ounce.

Confusion over Trump tariff policies drove volatility today after the Washing Post reported his aids signaled that a less-aggressive approach would be likely. Rather than huge blanket tariffs against all trading partners, as promised, the scaled down plan would apply only to imports critical to national or economic security.

Softer tariffs would be less inflationary and more conducive to economic growth, at least in the short term.

But Trump took to his media platform Truth Social to deny the report, causing whiplash in financial markets. The Dow toggled from big gains to small losses, the dollar from small gains to small losses.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose in choppy trade, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Traders await a series of economic releases this week, including the JOLTS report on job openings tomorrow, the ADP private payroll report midweek, and the all-important federal nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Platinum dropped 0.6% and palladium rose 1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $6.60 to $2,638.40; silver climbed 54 cents to $30.34; platinum shed $5.30 to $929.30; and palladium picked up $9.40 to $925 an ounce.