Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Gold futures are seeing a short-covering rebound early Tuesday, while silver prices are lower and hit another seven-week low overnight. A strong U.S. dollar index that hit a three-month high overnight, along with rising U.S. Treasury yields that are near 20-year highs, are limiting buying interest in the two precious metals markets. Key U.S. economic data looms this week. December gold was last up $21.60 at $4,189.90 and December silver was down $0.393 at $61.325.

Wednesday comes the U.S. personal income and outlays report that brings the Fed’s preferred PCE price index along with the third estimate of second-quarter GDP and annual BEA revisions going back five years. Wells Fargo expects spending up 0.8% in August and income up 0.5%, with the PCE deflator up 0.4% (3.8% year over year, above the 3.7% consensus). It says revisions may leave the recent inflation trend somewhat softer even as the August print runs hotter.

The U.S. monthly jobs report on Friday is the week’s data point. Wells Fargo forecasts a rise of 90,000 in non-farm payrolls (consensus 100,000) after August’s 162,000 gain. U.S. unemployment is seen steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings up 0.3%. Wells Fargo says recent labor data still describe a resilient market: hiring measures in regional Fed and small-business surveys are above a year ago, initial jobless claims hover near multi-decade lows and job postings have perked up modestly. It flags local government education payrolls as a swing factor after a 62,000 drop in July and a partial 50,000 rebound in August, with the school year now underway. Labor force participation showed tentative stabilization in August, and Wells Fargo expects annual wage growth of 3.2%, consistent with a labor market that is not generating meaningful inflation pressure. A figure well above consensus would strengthen the case for further hikes; a miss would test it.

High gold prices and steep taxes are driving more Indian buyers into under-the-counter cash sales, where bullion and jewelry change hands without invoices that can be traced by authorities, Bloomberg reports. “Buying off the books with cash can shave as much as 6% from prevailing market prices for bulk buyers, according to five people familiar with the trade, asking not to be named discussing a sensitive matter. Dealers accepting cash can sidestep taxes and pass part of the savings on to customers,” said the report. One shopper, who gave her name only as Anuradha, said she had bought ornaments for her daughter’s wedding at a discount of 5,000 rupees ($52) for every 10 grams — but took no receipt. The savings were hard to ignore for the 55-year-old homemaker after gold surged to a record earlier this year. Prices have since eased but remain almost 28% higher than a year ago. “It was an offer I couldn’t refuse. Gold prices are way too high and we trust the jeweler,” she said, asking that only her first name be used because of the sensitivity of the transaction. Anuradha is among a growing number of buyers turning to the shadow trade, which has flourished since the government more than doubled import levies on gold and silver to 15%, as part of steps to curb purchases as India grapples with a ballooning trade deficit. Retail customers have to pay an additional 3% goods and services tax.

Crude oil prices remain elevated on stalled U.S.-Iran talks, strong demand. Brent crude oil prices rose for a second day as a lack of progress in U.S.-Iran talks and signs of strong demand outweighed a resumption of flows through a key pipeline from top exporter Saudi Arabia. Iranian officials have privately expressed pessimism about reaching a deal to end hostilities with Washington and reopen the Strait of Hormuz before U.S. midterm elections in November. Brent crude traded above $107 a barrel overnight after ticking higher in the previous session, while Nymex West Texas Intermediate was around $92 as of this writing. Saudi Arabia has restored about half the flows through its cross-country East-West pipeline, a crucial route bypassing the strait, after drone strikes halted operations earlier this month. Flows through the link to the Red Sea have reached at least 3.5 million barrels a day, reports said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer and hitting a three-month high. November Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $92.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 5.23%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,439.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then $4,250.00. First support is seen at this week’s low of $4.132.10 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 2.5

December silver futures bulls see the next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 68.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $63.00 and then at $65.00. Next support is seen at the overnight low of $60.63 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold and silver prices are sharply lower and hit seven-week lows in early U.S. trading Monday. The precious metals are getting hit hard by chart-based selling pressure from the shorter-term speculative futures traders, as the near-term technical postures for both metals have turned significantly bearish. A strong U.S. dollar index and a steady rise in U.S. Treasury yields are bearish outside-market elements for gold and silver. The USDX is near a three-month high and Treasury yields are near 19-year highs. December gold was last down $138.10 at $4,183.40 and December silver was down $3.10 at $61.715.

Crude oil prices rally after potential U.S.-Iran truce falls through again. Brent crude climbed above $107 and Nymex WTI futures above $95 per barrel overnight, recovering losses from the previous session after President Trump rejected Iran’s latest proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that the restoration of oil flows through the critical waterway could face further delays. Trump also said Tehran had overplayed its hand and expects negotiations to resume this week. Meanwhile, Iran said it is waiting for a definitive U.S. response to its seven-day proposal to reopen the strait and other demands, adding that it will not ease its conditions after Trump rejected Tehran’s latest plan. Elsewhere in the Middle East, tensions remain high as Saudi Arabia intercepted Houthi drones heading toward Riyadh, along with a missile targeting Khamis Mushait in the south. Alerts were also issued in Abha and Jazan, where Aramco operates energy facilities.

Russia, Ukraine continue to pound the other’s infrastructure. Russia’s weekend airstrikes killed at least four people across Ukraine and hit a data center in Kyiv, according to President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Odesa Region Governor Oleh Kiper said on Telegram that a “massive” strike damaged a medical facility, a hotel, a shop, and a warehouse for storing grain crops, among other things. Kremlin forces also struck two logistics centers in the Kyiv and Odesa regions, as well as a dry cargo ship on its way to the Odesa port, according to the defense ministry. At the same time, Russian air-defense systems shot down 96 drones fired by Ukraine over regions bordering Ukraine, the annexed Crimean peninsula, and the Black Sea, the Defense Ministry said. Ukraine’s air forces said Russia launched 170 drones. “The warring countries continue to trade strikes with Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine well into its fifth year and no sign of any peace deal. The U.S. has pushed both sides to agree to a pause on attacks of each other’s energy assets, but neither has accepted,” said Bloomberg.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. November Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $95.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 5.23% and hit a nearly 19-year high.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at $4,439.80. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,200.00 and then $4,250.00. First support is seen at the overnight low of $4.172.70 and then at $4,100.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at 68.105. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $63.00 and then at $65.00. Next support is seen at $61.00 and then at $60.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.0

Gold and silver prices are solidly higher in early U.S. trading Friday, boosted by a weaker U.S. dollar index to end the trading week and by some perceived bargain hunting following recent selling pressure. There may even be some safe-haven buying in the two precious metals, as the bond markets are still somewhat turbulent. December gold was last up $50.00 at $4,347.00 and December silver was up $1.40 at $65.41.

U.S. Treasury yields holding above 5%, worrying market watchers. “As yields on U.S. Treasuries soar past one high after the next, a reality is sinking in deeper across Wall Street and Washington: More than merely a bond-market slump, this might just be a fundamental shift,” said a Bloomberg report. “Myriad forces have combined to push the government’s borrowing costs higher — from $100-a-barrel oil and the AI spending boom, to yawning U.S. budget deficits adding to a record $40 trillion debt load — all against a backdrop of a Federal Reserve bent on cooling inflation that’s run well past target for years.” The selling pressure intensified this week as energy prices rose early on, and data showed U.S. businesses are humming along, giving an already hawkish central bank more reasons to keep raising interest rates. Now, nearly all U.S. benchmark yields are hovering around or above 5%, with five-year Treasuries surpassing that threshold on Wednesday for the first time since 2007.

Crude oil prices retreat on potential for U.S.-Iran Hormuz deal. Brent crude fell toward $105 and WTI toward $92 per barrel on Friday, snapping a two-day rally amid reports the U.S. and Iran are considering a phased deal that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift a U.S. blockade on Iranian ports. Efforts to reach a breakthrough were reportedly underway on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, with Qatari officials mediating the talks. A sequenced deal would be similar to the memorandum of understanding that the US and Iran struck in mid-June, which led to a fragile ceasefire that collapsed just weeks later. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told a group of journalists and academics that his country offered the US a new proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if certain conditions were met, said a Bloomberg report. Iran has maintained that it must retain control over Hormuz and would not accept a deal unless the U.S. eases military pressure and removes its blockade. Meanwhile, a White House official said President Trump remained open to talks with Iran but stressed that the U.S. had little need to negotiate given its strong position following the sanctions campaign and blockade. Elsewhere, tensions in the Middle East escalated after Iran-aligned Houthi militants in Yemen launched missiles toward Saudi cities, including Yanbu and Taif.

“Trump-Xi Summit Goes Big on Pomp But Small on Substance.” That’s an overnight headline from Bloomberg. “President Trump’s fete for China’s Xi Jinping has been heavy on pageantry and platitudes but light on substantive announcements,” said the report. “Through Thursday evening in Washington, the most significant news tied to the gathering was announced before it even began, when Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said just as Xi’s plane landed that the two sides had extended a trade truce for another two months. Anticipated agreements on tariff cuts and a new line of communication on artificial intelligence have yet to be announced, and Chinese stocks in Hong Kong declined, suggesting traders saw a lack of progress.” Trump repeatedly cast Xi as a friend rather than the U.S.’s foremost geopolitical rival despite their nations’ intensifying competition on AI and divides over trade. Kicking off three hours of events at the White House, Trump hailed his “truly great friendship” with Xi, saying “there’s much we can achieve.” Still, expectations were low going into the summit that it would produce breakthroughs on major disagreements. “Commodities markets are looking for specifics on trade in agriculture and energy between the two powers, including Chinese purchases of U.S. crops and natural gas. So far, details haven’t materialized, leaving traders awaiting further statements from Washington and Beijing,” said another report from Bloomberg.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. November Nymex WTI crude oil prices are lower and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 5.15%.

December gold futures are higher in early U.S. trading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at $4,400.00 and then $4,439.80. First support is seen at $4.300.00 and then at the September low of $4,273.30. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December silver futures are higher early today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $67.00 and then at this week’s high of $68.105. Next support is seen at this week’s low of $63.505 and then at the September low of $62.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

Gold and silver prices are down in early U.S. trading Thursday, as the U.S. dollar index overnight hit a two-month high, while U.S. Treasury yields are pushing higher. Hawkish comments from a Federal Reserve official are also pressuring the precious metals markets. December gold was last down $26.50 at $4,291.00 and December silver was down $0.899 at $64.05.

“U.S. 30-Year Yield Hits Highest Since 2004 as Bond Selloff Deepens.” That’s an overnight Bloomberg headline. “Yields on the U.S. government’s longest-dated bonds climbed to the highest level in more than two decades, the latest milestone notched in an extended bond selloff driven by inflation and fiscal concerns. “The rate on 30-year Treasuries rose as much as four basis points on Thursday to 5.44%, the highest since 2004, after Brent crude oil prices jumped. It follows a surge this week that left yields across maturities around the highest levels since 2007. ‘People are running out of superlatives for the yield on the 30-year bond,’ said Ed Al-Hussainy, a portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle. ‘Investors are saying, look, if we’re going to lock up our money for 30 years, we need much higher compensation,’” said the Bloomberg report. “Pressure on long-dated bonds has mounted as better U.S. economic growth, elevated energy prices as well as inflation and heavier government borrowing prompt investors to demand more compensation for locking up money for decades.”

New York Fed governor leans hawkish in London speech. Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams said there is still a lot of work to do on inflation given high energy prices and demand driven by investment in artificial intelligence. In a speech in London today, Williams said the U.S. economy has shown “remarkable resilience despite significant shocks” and the labor market is “solid.” However, he pointed to lingering inflation risks from the ongoing U.S.-Iran war and “pretty strong demand from AI,” said a Bloomberg report. “That’s the job: we still have a lot of work to do,” Williams said. “Inflation’s been above target for five years.” U.S. inflation held above target at 3.4% in August with a key measure excluding food and energy rising by more than expected compared with the previous month.

Rio Tinto Group plans to expand its marketing operations to trade more metals from other producers as well as derivatives. The company will build out third-party trading, marking a significant break from its current model of marketing primarily its own products, and is looking at trading opportunities in areas such as the alumina market and the North American copper market. Rio Tinto is also willing to start using financial derivatives to hedge against its positions and exposures, rather than taking directional bets on commodity prices, according to a Bloomberg report.

U.S.-China trade truce extended by two months. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox News that he and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng agreed to extend the trade truce reached in South Korea last fall for two months, to Jan. 10. “I don’t know whether a bigger deal can be done. I don’t know whether we will just roll the current deal,” Bessent said, according to Bloomberg. There’s also much attention on whether China will signal a commitment to what the White House has said is a pledge to buy $17 billion in non-soybean agricultural goods on a pro-rated basis this calendar year, on top of its purported pledge to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans in 2026, 2027 and 2028. China has been a regular U.S. soybean buyer over the past several weeks, booking more than half of its alleged commitment. Beijing has never publicly affirmed the size of any purchase commitments.

Crude oil prices rebound. Brent crude rose above $105 a barrel and Nymex WTI futures were around $94 early today, extending good gains seen Wednesday. Heightened Middle East tensions clouded prospects for a diplomatic resolution to the U.S.-Iran war. Military adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader Yahya Rahim Safavi warned that the conflict could expand from the Persian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea to the Indian Ocean if the U.S. or Israel launches another attack. His remarks weakened optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran discussions on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said Tehran was prepared to resume talks on ending the conflict but would not respond to threats. He also said Iran would restrict freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz while U.S. sanctions and a blockade remain in place.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index modestly up and hitting a nearly two-month high overnight. November Nymex WTI crude oil prices are higher and trading around $93.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 5.11%.

Technically, December gold futures are weaker in early U.S. trading. Bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,338.00 and then $4,400.00. First support is seen at the September low of $4,273.30 and then at $4,200.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 3.5

December silver futures are lower early today. The next upside price objective for the bulls is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at the July low of $55.60. First resistance is seen at $65.00 and then at $67.00. Next support is seen at $65.00 and then at the September low of $62.75. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5