Jim Wyckoff - Daily Gold Market Updates

Crude oil surges as Iran-backed Houthis attack Saudi Arabia. Saudi Arabia halted several energy facilities in the south as the Iran-backed Houthi militants claimed fresh strikes on the kingdom. The Yemen-based Houthis said they had targeted Saudi Aramco’s facilities in Abha, Najran and Jazan with ballistic missiles and drones, the group’s military spokesperson said in a statement and as reported by Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia’s energy ministry didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. The escalation of hostilities in the region bordering Yemen is deepening concerns about energy supply disruptions, driving Brent crude prices closer to $100 a barrel. Nymex WTI crude oil futures were trading around $94 this morning. Shipments through the Strait of Hormuz continue to be curtailed as the U.S. and Iran fight over control of the crucial waterway. The strikes on Tuesday caused fires at the facilities and wounded a number of people, the state-run Saudi Press Agency reported, citing officials at the energy ministry. Meantime, Iran said a deal with Oman to manage shipping through the Strait of Hormuz is imminent, which could tighten Tehran’s control over the waterway. The agreement will include details on a temporary safe route through the crucial transit point for energy supplies and will be documented with the International Maritime Organization, said Bloomberg. The potential Iran-Oman accord came after weekend Iranian claims of attacks on ships and a U.S. military strike on Iranian crude tankers.

No break-throughs in U.S. envoys’ weekend Russia-Ukraine peace push. President Vladimir Putin remains committed to continuing Russia’s war in Ukraine after his latest meeting with U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, according to people familiar with the discussions and as reported by Bloomberg. “There was no breakthrough at the Kremlin talks, the people said, asking not to be identified because the matter is sensitive. Putin is determined to seize control of all of Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region and believes Russia’s army can achieve this goal in the next six months, they said. It’s possible there’ll be a phone call between Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump on the weekend’s diplomacy, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Monday, according to Interfax. He didn’t rule out a resumption of trilateral talks between Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. though he said it’s too early to discuss the timing or any venue, the news service reported.” Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov called Saturday’s talks “substantive, constructive, extremely frank and trusting” in a briefing after Putin met Witkoff and Kushner for more than three hours. “We had progress in Moscow,” Witkoff said at a press briefing later. “We have new ideas, and we brought them to Kyiv.” Ukraine President Zelenskyy appeared more cautious about the outcome of the talks, which also included national security chiefs from the U.K., France and Germany in Kyiv. He saw no quick end to the war, with Ukraine preparing for another tough winter ahead and looking to bolster air defenses against Russian attacks, said the report.

Canada hits U.S. with retaliatory tariffs. Canada imposed tariffs of 15% to 50% on hundreds of products from the U.S. as Prime Minister Mark Carney bets that standing up to President Trump will help Ottawa's negotiating position, Bloomberg reported. The measures will hit U.S. exporters particularly hard in states such as Michigan and Ohio that do a lot of business with Canada and host heated races in November's midterm elections. “Canada's retaliatory tariffs are meant to make the cost of this trade war real enough for American businesses and consumers that Washington sees a clear incentive to return to the table,” said a Canadian trade official in the Bloomberg report. Trump on Monday threatened in a social media post to bar sales of Bombardier Inc. jets in the U.S., accusing the Canadian company of living “off American Buyers.”

China’s trade surplus widens. China’s trade surplus grew to $119.09 billion in August, up from $101.01 billion a year earlier and matching forecasts. Exports jumped 25.0%, year-on-year (yoy), to $401.44 billion, in line with estimates, driven by strong demand for semiconductors and other high-tech products, as well as Chinese-made cars. Shipments to the U.S. surged 34.4% yoy to $42.5 billion, ahead of an expected meeting between the two nations’ leaders scheduled for later this month. Last month, Premier Li Qiang called for efforts to stabilize external demand and expand international trade cooperation. Meanwhile, imports surged 28.2% yoy to $282.36 billion, accelerating from a 27.5% jump in July. China’s trade surplus with the U.S. increased to $29.18 billion in August from $28.03 billion in July. In the first eight months of 2026, China’s trade surplus reached $805.51 billion, with exports and imports rising 19.3% and 27.0%, respectively, putting the annual figure on track to top $1 trillion for the second year.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index lower. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are solidly higher and trading around $94.00 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.8%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at the overnight high of $4,488.80 and then at $4,500.00. First support is seen at $4,400.00 and then at last week’s low of $4,329.20. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at last week’s high of $68.08 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at Friday’s low of $65.335 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0

It’s jobs, jobs, jobs Friday! The U.S. economy is expected to have added 56,000 jobs in August, marking a modest rebound after a surprising decline of 23,000 in July. The private sector is forecast to have accounted for 45,000 of those gains. Meanwhile, the U.S. unemployment rate is expected to have remained unchanged at 4.1%, hovering near a one-year low. Average hourly earnings are projected to have increased 0.3% in August from the previous month and 3.0% from a year earlier, which would mark the weakest annual growth since May 2021. Overall, the report is expected to point to a relatively stable, albeit subdued, labor market.

Some of the world’s biggest money managers have rebuilt their long gold holdings after prices dropped, betting that long-term drivers of the precious metal will endure. Fund managers at companies including Amundi SA, Pictet Asset Management Ltd., and Fidelity International Ltd. added to holdings cut earlier this year, during bullion’s retreat from an all-time high. Investors’ renewed appetite for gold is reflected in funds’ net-long position, which rose to its highest level so far this year, as they consider gold a hedge within a broader investment portfolio, said a Bloomberg report.

U.S. envoys traveling to Moscow, Kyiv to talk peace. Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected to visit Moscow and Kyiv this weekend, according to Russia’s state-run Tass news service and as reported by Bloomberg. They’re likely to travel to Moscow first and then head to Kyiv, Tass reported today, citing a person familiar that it didn’t identify. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s office didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment. Zelenskyy said Thursday that he expected to meet with U.S. envoys within the coming days. It would be the envoys’ first visit to Kyiv since the start of Russia’s February 2022 full-scale invasion. Witkoff and Kushner have visited Russia multiple times for talks with President Vladimir Putin and his officials in an effort to broker a peace deal that has so far proved elusive. Putin said Thursday that Russia and Ukraine need to reach agreement between themselves first of all, though powers such as the U.S. and China can help. “Is there a chance (for peace)? In my view, yes it exists,” Putin said.

The key outside markets today see the U.S. dollar index firmer. October Nymex WTI crude oil prices are weaker and trading around $90.50 a barrel. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yield is presently 4.76%.

Technically, December gold futures bulls’ next upside price objective is to produce a close above solid resistance at the August high of $4,755.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is pushing futures prices below solid technical support at the June low of $4,015.60. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $4,558.50 and then at $4,600.00. First support is seen at Thursday’s low of $4,426.70 and then at $4,400.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 4.5

December silver futures bulls see their next upside price objective is closing prices above solid technical resistance at the August high of 72.05. The next downside price objective for the bears is closing prices below solid support at $60.00. First resistance is seen at this week’s high of $68.18 and then at $70.00. Next support is seen at Thursday’s low of $65.775 and then at $65.00. Wyckoff's Market Rating: 5.0