AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

3/24/2025: Gold falls on shifting tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.2% to close above $3,013 after a softer stance on potential tariffs boosted stocks, yields, and the dollar, eroding demand for safe-haven assets. Silver shed 0.1% to finish at $33.23 an ounce.

The White House said today that its aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs on all trading partners, scheduled to begin on April 2, will probably be softened to exclude a variety of sectors. While the details are unclear, the shifting stance improved risk appetite.

All three major US stock indexes rallied with relief. The Down and S&P 500 picked up more than 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq jumped more than 2%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3% as investors shifted away from safety toward risk. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.2% to reach a two-week high against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum and palladium lost 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $5.10 to $3,013.10; silver slipped 3 cents to $33.23; platinum shed $7.30 to $972.90; and palladium lost $17.45 to $947.70 an ounce.

3/21/2025: Gold posts third weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 0.7% to hold above $3,018 as upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar prompted traders to take profits from yesterday's rally to a new all-time high of $3,040. Bullion still rose 1.1% for the week, notching its third straight weekly win. Silver dropped 2.4% to $32.99, posting a weekly loss of 1.1%.

President Trump hinted today that he would be flexible about his aggressive reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, scheduled to begin early next month. Wall Street cheered the news, with all three major indexes shifting from losses to small gains.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly on the shift toward risk appetite, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive on other currencies.

Gold has now risen 16% and set 16 new records so far this year, driven by uncertainty over President Trump's disruptive trade and domestic policies.

Platinum fell 0.5% today and 1.3% this week. Palladium rose 2.2% but still incurred a weekly loss of 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $21.80 to $3,018.20; silver slid 80 cents to $32.99; platinum shed 5.20 to $980.20; and palladium picked up $21.05 to $960.05 an ounce.

3/20/2025: Gold rises to another record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added 0.1% to close at $3,040, another new record high, as Treasury yields fell further despite some upbeat US data and a stronger dollar. Bullion has now rallied more than 16% this year while achieving 16 record closes. Silver shed 0.6% to finish at $33.79 an ounce.

The crucial housing market showed signs of stabilizing after sales of previously owned homes increased 4.2% in February, more than expected, with rising supply bringing buyers back into the market. The increase came despite a December drop in contracts, which typically front-run sales by a couple of months.

First time jobless claims rose slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remained solid this month despite a dimmer outlook brought on by trade wars and massive cuts in government payrolls. But continuing claims rose 33,000 to hover near the three-year high hit in January.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dipped further on continuing demand for the perceived safety of government debt because of tariff uncertainties. Falling yields help gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Capping gold's rise, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals, lifted by the Fed's messaging earlier this week that it is in no hurry to cut interest rates again. A rising buck weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium dropped 1.1% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4.10 to $3,040; silver slid 19 cents to $33.79; platinum dropped $11.20 to $985.80; and palladium shed $28 to $939.10 an ounce.

3/19/2025: Gold inches higher after Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up less than 0.1% to hold at a record high near $3,036 as the Fed signaled two more rate cuts this year despite concerns about higher inflation and slower economic growth. Silver shed 1.7% to finish at $33.98 an ounce.

At the close of its two-day meeting on monetary policy, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected. But the central bankers said uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, given sticky inflation and unsettling Trump administration trade policies.

Notably, committee members are still penciling in two quarter-point rate cuts for this year. Fed fund futures trading lifted the odds of a June cut to 62% from 57% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept lower on the rate cut prospects, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar pared gains after the Fed decision but still rose 0.3% against major rivals, capping gold's rise by making it pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium dropped 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained 80 cents to $3,035.90; silver lost 60 cents to $33.98; platinum slid 5.60 to $997; and palladium shed ^.50 to $967.10 an ounce.

3/18/2025: Gold surges to new record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.2% to close above $3,035 at another new all-time high as escalating turmoil in the Middle East and worries about Trump trade policies stoked safe-haven inflows. Bullion has now risen 15% so far this year and notched 14 new record highs. Silver jumped 1.5% to $34.58 an ounce.

Israel resumed bombardment of Gaza, launching military strikes on Hamas targets that reportedly killed 400 people. After a two-month ceasefire, the attacks risk plunging the region back into full-scale war.

Wall Street tumbled today, with the Dow and S&P 500 losing 0.5% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5% on concerns that aggressive tariffs will push the US into recession. President Trump acknowledged the possibility but said it will be worth it to restructure the economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slid further under 4.3% on the shift toward safety, supporting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields the dollar slid 0.1% as the euro rallied on Germany's approval of a major spending program on infrastructure and defense.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.2% and less than 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close; gold gained $35.10 to $3,035.10; silver rallied 51 cents to $34,.58; platinum dipped $2.10 to $1,002.60; and palladium edged down 45 cents to $973.60 an ounce.

3/17/2025: Gold reclaims $3,000 on data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close at $3,000 as Treasury yields and the dollar slipped on weak US data ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Silver shed 0.3% to finish at $34.07 an ounce.

Retail sales rose a meager 0.2% in February, far below forecasts of 0.6%, as consumers hit pause over the uncertainty surrounding new Trump administration policies on trade and immigration. But the so-called "control group" that includes building materials, autos, and gasoline rose 1%, lending hope for solid GDP growth.

Homebuilder sentiment tumbled to a seven-month low in March as tariffs on imports hiked construction costs.

The OECD warned today that Trump tariffs will slow economic growth in the US, Canada, and Mexico while increasing inflation. It projects the US economy to expand by 2.2% this year, down from 2.4% in its previous forecast.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to just under 4.3% on the soft data as investors sought the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar shed 0.3% on concerns that tariffs could tip the US toward recession, prompting rate cuts from the Fed later this year. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making the cheaper overseas.

The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week to discuss monetary policy. Market observers will scour the ensuing policy statement for clues about forward guidance.

Platinum slid 0.5% while palladium added 1.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.50 to $3,000; silver slipped 11 cents to $34.07; platinum shed $5.40 to $1,004.50; and p0alladium picked up $10.85 to $937.15 an ounce.

3/13/2025: Gold surges to record high on tariff, growth, and geopolitical concerns

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold and silver surged higher as increasing retaliatory tariffs and tariff threats escalated concerns over US economic growth today. Gold was up 1.5%, peaking at $2,985.40 in the spot market, while silver gained 1.6% at the close of the New York trading session. Amid all the potential economic uncertainty the escalating trade wars are creating, investors flocked to gold as a stable, safe haven asset with no counterparty risk, pushing the yellow metal as close to $3,000 per ounce as it has ever been.

US equity markets, which found stability yesterday, plunged lower again today after President Trump responded to new EU tariffs on US whiskey exports by threatening 200% tariffs on EU alcohol imports. The daily, knee jerk, tit-for-tat tariff announcements once again unsettled stocks, which tumbled yet again. At the close the DOW was down 0.08%, the S&P 500 gained 0.56%, while the NASDAQ rose 1.3%.

The US government is careening towards a government shutdown on Saturday. On Tuesday, the House passed a continuing resolution along party lines to fund the government through the end of the fiscal year in September. The Senate, which is divided 53 Republicans to 47 Democrats, needs a total of 60 votes to pass the bill to avoid a filibuster. So far, no clear path forward to pass the continuing resolution has appeared.

Russian President Putin rejected the US brokered Ukraine, Russian cease fire proposal today. Instead, a full list of Russia’s requirements to end the war was delivered to US negotiators, according to Reuters.

Overnight Putin, wearing full military garb, made a surprise visit to the Kursk region following Russian forces overwhelming and retaking most of the Ukrainian occupied land there. Ukrainian troops pushed into Kursk last August hoping to use the occupation of Russian territory as a future bargaining chip with Russia.

The US dollar gained 0.23 on the US dollar index 103.84 and the yield on the 10-year US treasury edged 0.04% lower to 4.28%.

At the close the DOW was down 1.30%, the S&P 500 fell 1.39%, while the NASDAQ tumbled 1.96%.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $45.20 to $2,984.30; silver rose $0.57 to $34.05; platinum gained $1.32 to $993.52; and palladium moved $9.63 higher to $966.63.

3/12/2025: Metals gain, inflation eases, EU and Canada tariff US exports

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all gained today. At the New York close gold was up 0.9%, silver 1.7%, platinum 1.3% and palladium 2.0%.

The BLS released their monthly inflation report this morning indicating headline CPI for Feb. rose at 0.20% MoM while core CPI (excluding food and energy) rose 0.2% MoM as well. Headline inflation rose 2.8% YoY while core inflation rose to 3.1% YoY.

Headline inflation, which had been rising steadily since last October from 0.2% to as high as 0.5% just last month, saw the largest MoM decline in a year, back to 0.2% today. Core inflation, which has been less volatile than headline inflation over the past year, finally eased below the 3.2% to 3.3% range it has been stuck in since June of last year.

While it is still too early to say definitively, following six to eight months of sticky inflation, the rate of price increases is easing again. All the data released today preclude any cost input increases President Trump’s aggressive new tariff policies might bring.

The EU and Canadian governments put on tit-for-tat equivalent dollar tariffs on select US goods exported to their countries by the US in response to the US imposition of 25% duties on steel and aluminum effective today. President Trump vowed to respond in kind, however, no details were revealed.

Asian steel and aluminum exporters South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia offered no retaliatory measures, yet. Mexico is waiting for the US to announce additional reciprocal tariffs on April 2 before responding. Brazil is seeking negotiations with the Trump administration hoping to find middle ground.

The US dollar gained 0.15 on the US dollar index to 103.56 and the yield on the 10-year US treasury edged higher 0.04% to 4.32.

Stocks found a firmer footing today, following the easing inflation report. At the close the DOW was down 0.08%, the S&P 500 gained 0.56%, while the NASDAQ rose 1.3%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $26.20 to $2,939.10; silver rose $0.59 to $33.48; platinum advanced $8.50 to $989.21; and palladium moved $7.40 higher to $957.00.

3/11/2025: Metals rebound from yesterday's equity liquidity event

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Gold, silver, platinum, and palladium all rebounded in New York trading today following yesterday’s huge stock sell-off liquidity event. At the New York close gold was up 0.8%, silver 1.9%, platinum 1.7% and palladium 0.8%. Gold moved higher still in the electronic session for a 1.1% gain on the full trading day.

The US dollar fell another 0.55 points on the US dollar index to 103.29, its lowest level since election day. Conversely, the yield on the 10-year US treasury edged higher 0.6% to 4.28%.

Tomorrow we will look forward to the latest CPI inflation report that analysts are anticipating will show a gain of 0.3% MoM.

Concerns and uncertainty over tit-for-tat tariff gamesmanship escalated between the US and Canada. Last night Ontario Premier Doug Ford vowed to put 25% tariffs on electricity Ontario provides to Minnesota, New York, and Michigan. This morning President Trump announced he would double tariffs to 50% on imports of Canadian steel and aluminum effective tomorrow. The US imports about 11% of its steel and about 40% of its aluminum from Canada.

And, of course, no sooner than the ink here has dried on the page, both Ontario Premier Ford and President Trump have taken a step back on their one-upmanship. Ford and US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnik will meet in Washington on Thursday. Apparently, no electric surcharge from Canada will be applied, and it looks like additional 25% tariffs on steel and aluminum will not either.

Stocks continued their skid lower to short-term cyclical lows early in the trading session. As trading activity continued, however, all three US equity indices rebounded from daily lows. At the close the DOW fell 1.1%, the S&P 500 dropped 0.76% while the NASDAQ eased 0.18% lower. The intraday reversal mitigating another rout was attributed to the easing of tension between the US and Canada over tariffs and a renewal of negotiations between the US and Ukraine.

The US and Ukraine announced following today’s meeting in Saudi Arabia terms for a 30-day cease fire by Ukraine have been agreed upon if Russia will agree to the terms as well. The US will resume intelligence sharing and security assistance to Ukraine and both countries will work together to develop Ukraine minerals deposits.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $21.90 to $2,912.90; silver rose $0.61 to $32.89; platinum advanced $18.71 to $980.71; and palladium moved $9.80 higher to $949.60.

3/10/2025: Tariff and growth concerns sink stocks, gold and silver ease lower

Source: Dana Samuelson, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Uncertainty over US tariff and economic policies sank stocks today, catching gold and silver in the liquidity event. At the New York spot market close gold and silver were down 0.5% and 0.75% respectively, but as the electronic session continued into the afternoon, they skidded further as the stock sell-off accelerated. At the close of the electronic session this afternoon gold was down 0.8% or $21.50 to $2,888, and silver was off 1.25% or $0.40 to $32.15.

The US dollar was up slightly 0.14 points on the US dollar index to 104.00 while the yield on the 10-year US treasury rose 0.08% to 4.22%. Both tumbled last week helping to buoy gold. Today’s gold and silver skid was due to the liquidity sell-off in stocks.

Equities markets became unnerved by fears of a US recession caused by President Trump’s aggressive, new policies. The magnitude of the cumulative effects of the Trump administration’s tariff and DOGE government reduction policies have come further into focus over the last week causing growing concern over future US economic growth. Sharp reductions in government spending and employment and an uncertain surge in input costs for importers and retaliatory tariffs for exporters have made investors extremely skittish over the US’s economic future.

Adding fuel to the fire, the US government will run out of funding this Friday unless Congress can pass a new funding resolution this week.

Stocks sold off sharply with the DOW falling 2.08%, the S&P 500 down as much as 2.70% while the NASDAQ was hammered 4.0%. Bitcoin was sold down over $5,000 at one point before it rebounded over $1,000 back into the $78,700 range.

The notoriously choppy Atlanta Fed GDP Now tumbled from +2% to -2.8% last week when imports were added to the calculus. Many analysts rang alarm bells over the severity of the projected GDP plunge, which does not yet have counterbalancing exports factored in.

Imports have been unusually high as many US businesses have been on international buying binges frontrunning potential higher tariff costs. As new data has arrived the forecast rose to -2.4% today. The choppiness of the GDP Now forecast narrows into greater reliability and clarity as the close of the economic quarter approaches, and all the quarterly incoming data is factored in.

China has retaliated against higher US tariffs by implementing tariffs on US agriculture products including grains, cotton, fresh produce, and cotton. China has also halted imports of soybeans from three US exporters and all US timber. Since the first Trump administrations tariff policies were enacted in 2018, China has sought to import these types of products from other nations, Brazil in particular, to be less reliant on the US.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $13.70 to $2891.00; silver fell $0.28 to $32.27; platinum edged down $1.36 to $960.24; and palladium lost $6.00 to $939.80.