AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/13/2024: Gold falls for fourth session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell another 0.7% to close under $2,581 after a mild increase in the annual CPI lifted Treasury yields and the dollar, pressuring alternative assets. It was bullion’s fourth straight down session. Silver slipped 10 cents to $30.59 an ounce.

The consumer price index rose 0.2% in October, as forecast, lifting the 12-month inflation rate to 2.6% from 2.4% in September. While in line with expectations, it was the first annualized increase since March. The narrower core rate, stripping out food and energy, increased 0.3% to hold at 3.3% for 12 months.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to the highest level since early July as traders brace for the onset of inflationary policies from President-elect Trump. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added another 0.4% to hit a one-year high against major rivals. A stronger dollar is a headwind for gold and other commodities because it makes them more expensive in other currencies.

President Trump’s promises of blanket tariffs on imports are expected to increase prices to consumers. In addition, his plan a=calling for the mass deportation of immigrants could reduce the labor force for low-paying jobs, and thereby raise labor costs that would be passed along to consumers.

Platinum and palladium fell 0.2% and 0.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $19.20 to $2,580.80; silver slid a dime to $30.39; platinum shed $1.95 to $940.95; and palladium slid $8.90 to $932 an ounce.

11/12/2024: Gold falls to 8-week low

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell another 0.4% to close at $2,600, the lowest level since late September, as Treasury yields rose and the dollar rallied, pressuring alternative stores of value. Silver slipped 15 cents to finish at $30.69 an ounce.

A second Trump administration is expected to deliver tax cuts and deregulation that could drive incomes and corporate profits higher. Combined with the blanket tariffs promised by the President-elect, these policies also have the potential to be highly inflationary, slowing the Fed’s process of unwinding the highest interest rates in a generation.

The dollar added another 0.5% to reach a five-month high against major rivals of the shifting rate view. Tomorrow’s release of the October CPI should provide greater clarity on the current inflation outlook.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed to a four-month high above 4.4% as investors continued to shift out of safe-haven assets like government debt and gold.

Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds, while a stronger dollar makes gold and other commodities more expensive overseas, reducing demand.

Platinum fell 1.7% while palladium shed 4.2%.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $11.20 to $2,600; silver slipped 15 cents to $30.69; platinum pulled back by $16.60 to $947.60; and palladium retreated $41.40 to $940.90 an ounce.

11/11/2024: Gold tumbles on risk rally

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — With banks and bond markets closed for Veterans Day, New York spot gold tumbled 2.8% as the dollar rallied further and rising risk appetite pulled monies away from safe havens. Silver dropped 2.6% to finish at $30.54 an ounce.

With Republicans winning control of the White House and Senate, and with the undecided House likely to tilt GOP, the markets are betting that rollbacks in taxes and regulations will drive risk assets sharply higher. Wall Street was mixed for the day, all three main indexes are hovering near all-time highs after Donald Trump's decisive re-election.

The dollar rallied another 0.5% against major rivals, reaching the highest level in five months on expectations that tariffs and tax cuts, Trump's primary economic policies, will be inflationary and limit the Fed's ability to cut interest rates. A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Plunging oil prices also pressured bullion as WTI crude lost 3.2% on the stronger dollar and worries that China's recently announced stimulus program will do little to revive demand in the world's leading manufacturer. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against rising energy prices.

Platinum and palladium shed 1% each.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $76.30 to $2,611.20; silver slid 82 cents to $31.54; platinum dropped $9.30 to $964.30; and palladium retreated by $9.90 to $982.30 an ounce.

11/8/2024: Gold declines on dollar strength

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.4% to close under $2,688 as the dollar rebounded on uncertainty over the economic policies of a second Trump administration, pressuring alternative stores of value. Bullion lost 1.9% for the week, its worst in more than five months. Silver lost 1.3% today and 3.4% this week to finish at $31.36 an ounce.

After easing in the aftermath of the Fed's quarter-point rate cut, the dollar resumed its aggressive rally, adding 0.6% against major rivals to climb near a four-month high. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities priced in it for global trade by making them pricier in other currencies.

The main driver of the dollar's strong performance is the re-election of Donald Trump, whose campaign policies on tariffs, immigration, and taxes are expected to promote both economic growth and inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell further as traders hedged against the uncertainty of whether the next Trump term will, indeed, put his campaign promise into practice.

Platinum fell 2.4% for the session and 2.3% for the week. Palladium dropped 2.8% for a weekly decline of 11%.

At the New York spot close: gold slid $10.90 to $2,687.50; silver lost 41 cents to $31.36; platinum gave back $24, $968.80; and palladium retreated $28.50 to $992.20 an once.

11/7/2024: Gold rebounds ahead of Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded 1.2% to close above $2,698 on mixed data as Treasury yields and the dollar receded ahead of the Fed's decision on interest rates. Silver rose 1.7% to finish at $31.77 an ounce.

Initial jobless claims rose 3,000 to 221,000 last week after three straight weeks of declines, and wholesale inventories declined in September for the first time in six months, a sign that businesses are cautious about the direction of the economy.

On the positive side, US productivity rose 2.2% in the third quarter, generating both higher profits for businesses and higher pay for employees.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 4.4% as traders prepared for a rate cut from the Fed at the conclusion of its two-day meeting. Lower yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar dropped 0.7% against major rivals as traders took profits from yesterday's surge to a four-month high. A falling dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them cheaper overseas.

As expected, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point, with similar a reduction on the table for December. But President-elect Donald Trump's policies on tariffs and taxes are expected to complicate further rate-cuts by supporting higher prices.

Platinum picked up 0.7% while palladium retreated 1.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $30.80 to $2,698.40; silver rose 54 cents to $31.77; platinum added $6.80, to $992.80; and palladium slipped $19.10 to $1,020.70 an ounce.

11/6/2024: Gold tumbles on Trump win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold tumbled 2.7% to close under $2,668 as the dollar and Treasury yields surged on Donald Trump's decisive win in the US Presidential election. Silver fell 4.4% to finish at $31.22 an ounce.

The dollar rocketed 1.6% higher to a four-month peak after Forex markets speculated that President-elect Trump's aggressive policies on taxes, tariffs, and immigration will lead to faster economic growth and upward pressure on prices.

For the same reasons, Treasury yields leapt sharply higher, with benchmark 10-year yields pushing up near 4.5% and 30-year yields rising by the most since 2020.

A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies, while higher yields increase the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds.

Trump's policies are also expected to slow the Fed's unwinding of high interest rates in coming months.

All three major US equity indexed also blasted higher, with the Dow adding 3.6% while the S&P 500 picked up 2.5% and the Nasdaq 2.9%.

Platinum and palladium fell 1.2% and 3.6%, respectively,

At the New York spot close; gold dropped $72.70 to $2,667.60; silver shed $1.43 to $31.200; platinum slid $11.85 to $988.85; and palladium retreated $38.80 to $1,039.80 an ounce.

11/5/2024: Gold gains on dollar, uncertainty

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close above $2,740 despite upbeat ISM data as the dollar fell and investors braced for an uncertain outcome to the US Presidential election. Expectations that the Fed will lower interest rates also boosted bullion. Silver rose 0.5% to finish at $32.63 an ounce.

The US services sector surged to a two-year high in October, the ISM reported today, indicating that the businesses where most Americans work are booming. Including healthcare, hospitality, restaurants, banks, retailers, and others, the services sector accounts for more than 75% of the economy.

Notably, services employment jumped 55 to a 14-month high while the prices-paid index, measuring inflation, fell to low pandemic levels.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed back above 4.3% as the ISM data whetted risk appetite, shifting investors from bonds to stocks. All three major US equity indexes rose sharply.

Moving opposite yields for a change, the dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals as the so-called Trump trade unwound for a second session. While some betting markets continue to predict a Trump win, recent polling data shows momentum shifting to Harris, whose policies are expected to be less inflationary.

The tense race has left many Americans in fear of turmoil if the outcome is unclear. Gold traditionally rises in the face of geopolitical uncertainty.

Also supporting bullion, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point at its two-day meeting this week, which is likely to further pressure the dollar. A weaker buck makes gold less expensive in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium gained 1.5% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4.20 to $2,740.30; silver added 15 cents, to $32.63; platinum picked up $15.10 to $997.45; and palladium advance $7.20 to $1,078.60 an ounce.

11/4/2024: Gold edges down before elections

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down 0.1% to close near $2,736 despite downticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors tread water ahead of tomorrow's US elections and Fed meeting on monetary policy. Silver also slipped 0.1% to finish at $32.44 an ounce.

While the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains too close to call, the so-called Trump trade began to unwind today after Harris pulled ahead in the latest Iowa straw poll and betting markets shifted slightly in her favor.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 4.3% as traders speculated that a Harris administration would likely be less inflationary, given Trump's policy platform of sizable blanket tariffs. The rebound in yields over recent weeks had been in part due to expectations of a Trump win.

Tracking with yields and for similar reasons, the dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals. Often held as a hedge against rising prices, gold also receded slightly on anticipation of lower inflation in case of a Harris victory.

Gold remained supported by the prospect of monetary easing, with the Fed almost certain to cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it meets this week.

Platinum and palladium fell 1.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.50 to $2,736.10; silver slipped 4 cents to $32.44; platinum pulled back $11.40 to $983.70; and p0lallaium shed $37.40 to $1,071.40 an ounce.

11/1/2024: Gold flat after weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was nearly flat, inching up 30 cents to close just under $2,741, after initial gains from an extremely weak jobs report were neutralized by rebounds in Treasury yields and the dollar. Bullion ended the week less than 0.1% lower. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $32.48, posting a weekly decline of 3.3%.

The government's nonfarm payrolls report showed merely 12,000 jobs added in October, the fewest since December 2020, with the overall unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Totals for August and September were revised lower by 112,000 jobs.

While astonishingly weak, the latest jobs report carried some mitigating factors. Strikes in the aerospace industry lowered employment in manufacturing while hurricanes shortened the collection time for data, making its reliability questionable.

Gold immediately rose while yields and the dollar fell on the data. But all three trades quickly reversed direction once traders digested the possible reasons for the poor totals. Benchmark 10-year yield rebounded to a four-month high above 4.3%. The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders raised the odds of a quarter-point rate cut next week to 100%, up from 91% before the payrolls report was published.

Beyond the prospect of lower interest rates, bullion remains solidly supported by safe-haven demand ahead of next week's potentially tumultuous US elections and expectations that Iran will launch retaliatory strikes against Israel.

Platinum lost less than 0.1% today but 3.2% for the week. Palladium dropped 0.3% for a weekly loss of 7.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold added 30 cents, to $2,738.60; silver slipped 17 cents to $32.48; platinum dipped 30 cents to $991.30; and palladium shed $2,80 to $1,108.80 an ounce.

10/31/2024: Gold gains nearly 4% in October

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.8% to close under $2,739 on mixed data as traders took month-end profits from five straight winning sessions and a series of record-high prices. Bullion still gained nearly 4% for the month, driven by geopolitical concerns and monetary easing from central banks. Silver shed 3.7% to finish at $32.65 an ounce but rose 1.6% for the month.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.2% in September, as forecast, dropping the 12-month inflation rate to 2.1%, just barely above the Fed's target of 2%. The so-called core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% to keep the 12-month rate unchanged at 2.7%.

Meanwhile, the economy produced more evidence of a soft landing. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, beating forecasts and setting up Q4 for continued growth after GDP rose 2.8% in Q3. Consumer spending comprises around 70% of GDP.

In addition, first-time jobless claims dropped 12,000 to 216,000 last week, the lowest level in five months.

Both benchmark 10-year Treasury and the dollar were virtually unchanged.

Gold remains supported near record highs by uncertainty over the extremely close race for the US presidency and the deepening conflict in the Middle East. Expectations that the Fed will further reduce interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, when it meets next week are also fueling bullion's rally.

Platinum fell 1.9% today but rose 1.6% this month. Palladium gave back 3.7% but still surged 11.1% in October behind threats of sanctions against Russia, a leading producer.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $50.20 to $2,738.30; silver slid $1.26 to $32.65; platinum lost $18.80 to $994.30; and palladium dropped $42.50 to $1,111.60 an ounce.