AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/4/2024: Gold edges down before elections

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged down 0.1% to close near $2,736 despite downticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as investors tread water ahead of tomorrow's US elections and Fed meeting on monetary policy. Silver also slipped 0.1% to finish at $32.44 an ounce.

While the race between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris remains too close to call, the so-called Trump trade began to unwind today after Harris pulled ahead in the latest Iowa straw poll and betting markets shifted slightly in her favor.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 4.3% as traders speculated that a Harris administration would likely be less inflationary, given Trump's policy platform of sizable blanket tariffs. The rebound in yields over recent weeks had been in part due to expectations of a Trump win.

Tracking with yields and for similar reasons, the dollar fell 0.2% against major rivals. Often held as a hedge against rising prices, gold also receded slightly on anticipation of lower inflation in case of a Harris victory.

Gold remained supported by the prospect of monetary easing, with the Fed almost certain to cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it meets this week.

Platinum and palladium fell 1.1% and 3.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.50 to $2,736.10; silver slipped 4 cents to $32.44; platinum pulled back $11.40 to $983.70; and p0lallaium shed $37.40 to $1,071.40 an ounce.

11/1/2024: Gold flat after weak jobs data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold was nearly flat, inching up 30 cents to close just under $2,741, after initial gains from an extremely weak jobs report were neutralized by rebounds in Treasury yields and the dollar. Bullion ended the week less than 0.1% lower. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $32.48, posting a weekly decline of 3.3%.

The government's nonfarm payrolls report showed merely 12,000 jobs added in October, the fewest since December 2020, with the overall unemployment rate holding at 4.1%. Totals for August and September were revised lower by 112,000 jobs.

While astonishingly weak, the latest jobs report carried some mitigating factors. Strikes in the aerospace industry lowered employment in manufacturing while hurricanes shortened the collection time for data, making its reliability questionable.

Gold immediately rose while yields and the dollar fell on the data. But all three trades quickly reversed direction once traders digested the possible reasons for the poor totals. Benchmark 10-year yield rebounded to a four-month high above 4.3%. The dollar added 0.2% against major rivals.

Still, Fed fund futures traders raised the odds of a quarter-point rate cut next week to 100%, up from 91% before the payrolls report was published.

Beyond the prospect of lower interest rates, bullion remains solidly supported by safe-haven demand ahead of next week's potentially tumultuous US elections and expectations that Iran will launch retaliatory strikes against Israel.

Platinum lost less than 0.1% today but 3.2% for the week. Palladium dropped 0.3% for a weekly loss of 7.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold added 30 cents, to $2,738.60; silver slipped 17 cents to $32.48; platinum dipped 30 cents to $991.30; and palladium shed $2,80 to $1,108.80 an ounce.

10/31/2024: Gold gains nearly 4% in October

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.8% to close under $2,739 on mixed data as traders took month-end profits from five straight winning sessions and a series of record-high prices. Bullion still gained nearly 4% for the month, driven by geopolitical concerns and monetary easing from central banks. Silver shed 3.7% to finish at $32.65 an ounce but rose 1.6% for the month.

The Personal Consumption Expenditures index rose 0.2% in September, as forecast, dropping the 12-month inflation rate to 2.1%, just barely above the Fed's target of 2%. The so-called core PCE, excluding food and energy, rose 0.3% to keep the 12-month rate unchanged at 2.7%.

Meanwhile, the economy produced more evidence of a soft landing. Consumer spending rose 0.5% in September, beating forecasts and setting up Q4 for continued growth after GDP rose 2.8% in Q3. Consumer spending comprises around 70% of GDP.

In addition, first-time jobless claims dropped 12,000 to 216,000 last week, the lowest level in five months.

Both benchmark 10-year Treasury and the dollar were virtually unchanged.

Gold remains supported near record highs by uncertainty over the extremely close race for the US presidency and the deepening conflict in the Middle East. Expectations that the Fed will further reduce interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, when it meets next week are also fueling bullion's rally.

Platinum fell 1.9% today but rose 1.6% this month. Palladium gave back 3.7% but still surged 11.1% in October behind threats of sanctions against Russia, a leading producer.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $50.20 to $2,738.30; silver slid $1.26 to $32.65; platinum lost $18.80 to $994.30; and palladium dropped $42.50 to $1,111.60 an ounce.

10/30/2024: Gold nails another all-time high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained another 0.4% to close at a fresh all-time high above $2,788 despite upbeat US data as Treasury yields retreated and investors sought safety ahead of next week's divisive US elections and the Fed's meeting on monetary policy. Silver fell 2.2% to finish at $33.91 an ounce.

The economy grew at a solid pace in the third quarter, the Commerce Department reported today, with consumer spending accelerating at the fastest clip in 18 months. GDP rose 2.8%, slightly missing forecasts of 3% due to an outside trade deficit driven by strong consumer demand for imports. Inflation fell to 1.8% for the quarter.

Private payrolls added 233,000 new jobs in October, the most in 15 months and more than double most forecasts.

Despite data showing the US economy firing on most cylinders, the tense and consequential presidential race between Trump and Harris is provoking market agita, driving demand for safe-haven government bonds and lowering 10-year Treasury yields. Falling yields lift gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar lost 0.2% against major rivals, lifting gold by making it cheaper in other currencies.

The Fed is widely expected to cut interest rates by a quarter point next week, followed by a similar cut in December. Gold typically benefits from lower interest rates because they pressure yields and the dollar.

Platinum and palladium lost 2.8% and 5.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $11.80 to $2,788.50; silver slid 76 cents to $33.91; platinum dropped $29.20 to $1,013.10; and palladium retreated by $63 to $1,154.10 an ounce.

10/29/2024: Gold climbs to new record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold climbed 1% to close above $2,769, a new record high, as geopolitical uncertainty in the US, Middle East, and Japan drove investors toward safety. Expectations of further easing from the Fed also boosted bullion demand. Silver rose 1.5% to finish at $34.35 an ounce.

With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running and neck in the final week of campaigning, and with rhetoric mounting to a boil on both sides, the prospect of a tumultuous and perhaps violent outcome is prompting investors to seek protection.

In addition, Japan's government is in flux after PM Shigeru Ishiba's coalition was defeated last weekend, leaving no party with a governing majority. And escalating violence in the Middle East is adding to the global uncertainty after another Israeli strike on Gaza left more than 90 Palestinians dead and missing.

Gold is often sought out as currency of last resort during times of geopolitical turmoil.

Adding to bullion's appeal, the Fed is almost universally expected to cut interest rates by a quarter-point when it meets next week and then follow up with a similar rate cut in December. Lower interest rates typically weigh on yields and the dollar, boosting demand for gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it and making it cheaper overseas.

But data this week could influence the central bank's easing outlook. The ADP payrolls reports is due tomorrow, the PCE inflation index on Thursday, and the government's nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Consumer confidence rose to the highest level in since January as the Americans increasingly expect the economy to escape a recession. But US jobs opening fell to the lowest level since January 2021, in the depth of the pandemic, as companies cut back on hiring.

Benchmark 19-year Treasury yields pushed above 4.3%, capping gold's gains, while the dollar was virtually unchanged.

Platinum and palladium added 1.3% and 0.3%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $26.40 to $2,769.30; silver rose 52 cents to $34.35; platinum picked up $13.70 to $1,051; and palladium added $3.40, to $1,228.30 an ounce.

10/28/2024: Gold rises for third session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added less than 0.1% to close near $2,743 despite an early jump in Treasury yields and sharp gains in global equities as investors brace for volatile US elections next week. It was bullion's third straight winning session. Silver rose 0.7% to finish at $33.83 an ounce.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields initially spiked above 4.3% as investors rotated out of safe-haven bonds in relief that Israel's limited strikes against Iran this weekend appeared not to trigger any further escalation of the growing conflict.

But yields quickly receded back to flat ahead of a potent week of US economic data. The updated PCE index, Q3 GDP estimates, and the US nonfarm payrolls report will all be released. If weaker than expected, the odds would increase on stronger easing from the Fed, putting yields further under pressure.

Tracking with yields, the dollar initially rose as the yen plunged to a one-year low, then floated back to flat later in the session.

Global equities rallied on the anticipation of upbeat earnings reports from major tech firms this week.

Gold remained supported by the nail-biter US presidential election next week and worries that the results could turn tumultuous.

Platinum and palladium picked up 1% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold added $2, to $2,742.90; silver rose 23 cents to $33.83; platinum climbed $10.10 to $1,037.10; and palladium advanced $22.20 to $1,224.90 an ounce.

10/25/2024: Gold posts third weekly win

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added 0.2% to close near $2,741 as the dollar and Treasury yields edged slightly lower, boosting alternative assets. Bullion gained 0.2% for the week, posting its third straight weekly win, and has now risen more than 32% this year. Silver inched down a penny to end at $33.60, posting a weekly loss of 0.6%.

The dollar lost 0.2% against major rivals after orders for durable goods fell 1% in September, signaling that the slump in US manufacturing continues. But core orders, seen as a proxy for business investment, rose 0.5%. A weaker dollar boosts gold and other commodities by making them less expensive overseas.

Separately, the University of Michigan reported consumer sentiment rose to a six-month high as Republicans grew more confident and Democrats less confident in their candidate's chances of winning the White House.

Uncertainty over the extremely close race has been feeding demand for safe haven like gold, along with the deepening conflict in the Middle East. Expectations that the Fed will further reduce interest rates, albeit at a slower pace, are also supporting the metal.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields were virtually unchanged, hovering near three-month highs.

Platinum was nearly flat for the day and down 0.2% for the week. Palladium, added another 3.3% today for a weekly gain of 10.8%, driven by the prospect of new sanctions against Russia, a leading producer.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $6 to $2,740.90; silver dipped a cent to $33.60; platinum edged down 50 cents to $1,023.60; and palladium rose $38.80 to $1,202.70 an ounce.

10/24/2024: Gold rises on safe-haven inflows

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.8% to close near $2,735 as yields and the dollar retreated while investors flocked into safe-haven assets. Silver inched down less than 0.1% to finish at 33.61 an ounce.

The dollar fell 0.3% against major rivals, retreating from three-month highs as the euro strengthened after the German economy, the eurozone's biggest, improved this month. A falling dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive other currencies, lifting demand overseas.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged slightly lower as investors bought up US debt in a move toward safety. Falling yields help gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Despite yesterday's 1.1% correction, gold remains strongly supported by concerns about geopolitical conflict, the divisive US presidential election, lingering worries about inflation, and the prospects of continued monetary easing by central banks.

Palladium rocketed 9.3% higher after the US asked the Group of Seven nations to sanction Russian supplies of palladium and titanium because of the ongoing war in Ukraine. Russia supplies some 40% of global palladium production. Platinum picked up 0.6%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $20.50 to $2,734.90; silver dipped 3 cents to $33.61; platinum picked up $6.40 to $1,026.20; and palladium surged $99.20 to $1,163.90 an ounce.

10/23/2024: Gold falls on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.1% to close under $2,715 as rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar prompted traders to take profits from yesterday's all-time high above $2,744. Silver shed 3.4% to finish at $33.64 an ounce.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose to a three-month high above 4.2% as investors braced for the prospect of slower rate cuts from the Fed. Yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Stronger-than-expected recent data suggesting resilience in the economy has lowered expectations of another jumbo rate cut in November. Fed funds futures trading posits less than 10% of a chance for a half-point reduction at the Fed's next meeting, down from more than 50% just a few weeks ago.

Growing concerns about the ramifications of the presidential election for the budget deficit and national debt are also lifting yields. The Committee for a Responsible Budget published calculations showing the budget proposed by Kamala Harris would increase the deficit by $3.5 trillion over 10 years, while Donald Trump's tax plans would increase it by $7.5 trillion.

The dollar added 0.4% against major rivals and hit a three-month high against the yen as Fed officials have increasingly called for slower rate cuts. A rising dollar pressures gold and other commodities by making them pricier on other currencies.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $29.80 to $2,714.40; silver slid $1.19 to $33.64; platinum lost $13.20 to $1,019.18; and palladium retreated $16.70 to $1,064.70 an ounce.

10/22/2024: Gold notches new record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — Extending its record rally, New York spot gold added another 0.8% to close at a new all-time high above $2,744 as tensions in the Middle East and uncertainty over the upcoming US presidential election continued to drive investors into safe havens. Silver surged 2.8% to finish at $34.83 an ounce.

With Donald Trump and Kamala Harris running neck and neck down the home stretch, investors are bracing for turmoil if results are contested and economic uncertainty in either case. The policies of both candidates—Trump's tariffs, Harris' spending programs—are seen as increasing government debt and possibly inflation.

Adding to safe-haven inflows, the violence in the Middle East shows no signs of abating as Israel attempts to eliminate Hamas and undercut Hezbollah, potentially direct conflict with Iran.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields hover at a three-month high after a spate of better-than-expected US economic data has taken the pressure off the Fed to cut interest rates aggressively. Fed fund futures traders have reduced the odds of another half-point cut in November to just 9%, down from 51% a few weeks ago.

But further rate cuts are still in the cards, suggesting that the recent bump in yields may well be short-lived.

The dollar inched slightly higher against major rivals, also on safe-haven inflows and the prospect of slower rate cuts.

Platinum and palladium each rose 2.4%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $21.10 to $2,744.20; silver jumped 96 cents to $34.83; platinum picked up $23.80 to $1,031.40; and palladium climbed $25.80 to $1,081.40 an ounce.