AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

1/7/2025: Gold gains on inflation worries

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.7% to close near $2,657 despite upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar as solid US economic data rekindled concerns about inflation. Bullion is often seen as a hedge against loss of purchasing power. Silver shed 0.9% to finish at $30.07 an ounce.

Government data showed the number of US job openings rose to a six-month high in November, suggesting that the labor market might be rebounding after a few soft months.

Separately, the ISM reported the prices paid by services companies rose to the highest level in two years at the end of last year, rekindling fears of inflation.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields climbed after the data, curtailing gold’s gains. The dollar also edged higher on expectations that the Fed will be forced to slow its rate-cut cycle because of sticky inflation and the prospect of higher tariffs with the Trump administration.

Platinum and palladium rose 3.6% and 2.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.30 to $2.656.70; silver slid 27 cents to $30.07; platinum rose $33.50 to $962.80; and palladium picked up $23.10 to $932.70 an ounce.

1/6/2025: Gold dips on tariff confusion

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold dipped 0.2% as Treasury yields rose ahead of key economic data this week, prompting traders to take profits from bullion’s 1.1% rally last week. Conflicting reports about President-elect Trump’s plans for tariffs also stirred the markets. Silver rose 54 1.8% to finish at $30.34 an ounce.

Confusion over Trump tariff policies drove volatility today after the Washing Post reported his aids signaled that a less-aggressive approach would be likely. Rather than huge blanket tariffs against all trading partners, as promised, the scaled down plan would apply only to imports critical to national or economic security.

Softer tariffs would be less inflationary and more conducive to economic growth, at least in the short term.

But Trump took to his media platform Truth Social to deny the report, causing whiplash in financial markets. The Dow toggled from big gains to small losses, the dollar from small gains to small losses.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose in choppy trade, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Traders await a series of economic releases this week, including the JOLTS report on job openings tomorrow, the ADP private payroll report midweek, and the all-important federal nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.

Platinum dropped 0.6% and palladium rose 1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $6.60 to $2,638.40; silver climbed 54 cents to $30.34; platinum shed $5.30 to $929.30; and palladium picked up $9.40 to $925 an ounce.

1/3/2025: Gold slips on ISM, yields

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.5% to close at $2,645 as solid ISM factory data boosted Treasury yields and risk appetite, pressuring alternative assets. Bullion still finished the holiday-shortened week with a rise of 1.1%. Silver slid 0.6% to finish at $29.81, holding onto a weekly gain of 0.5%.

The ISM purchasing managers index for manufacturing rose to 49.3 in December, the highest level in nine months and just a whisper under the threshold of 50 signifying expansion. Production and new orders both rebounded more than forecast, fueling optimism that the years-long slump in US factories might be coming to an end.

All three major US stock indexes rose sharply, boosted by the upbeat ISM data and hopes for a business-friendly Trump administration. Tech shares led the way, lifting the Nasdaq 1.7% while the S&P 500 added 1.3% and the Dow 0.8%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pushed up to 4.6% as investors shifted away from safe-haven assets. Higher yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum jumped 3.5% for a weekly rise of 1.7%. Palladium picked up 2.9% today and 0.8% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $13.90 to $2,645; silver shed 18 cents to $29.81; platinum rallied $31.85 to $940.75; and palladium advanced $26.80 to $932 an ounce.

1/2/2025: Gold rallies sharply to start 2025

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 1.1% to close near $2,659 on safe-haven inflows driven by acute geopolitical turmoil and apprehension about the economic policies of the incoming Trump administration. Bullion surged 28% in 2024, the most since 2010. Silver jumped 2.3% to finish at $29.62, posting a 23% rise in 2024.

Uncertainty over global politics and domestic policies dominated the first trading day of the new year. Renewed fighting in Gaza and Ukraine underscored the ongoing danger of stubborn wars in Europe and the Middle East, which continue to take their toll in lives and economic growth.

Meanwhile, uncertainty surrounding the promised policies of the incoming Trump administration is also pushing investors toward safety. Huge blanket tariffs against major trading partners like Canada, Mexico, and China have the potential to spark trade wars; mass deportation of immigrants may cause labor shortages. Both could stoke inflation and smother growth.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back as investors bought the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar rose sharply, adding 0.7% against major rivals as manufacturing activity in Europe and Asia ended 2024 in weakness, prompting speculation that central banks in China, South Korea, and the Eurozone will have to reduce interest rates more aggressively this year than the Fed.

Gold’s remark able 28% surge in 2024, coming after an impressive 13% rise in 2023, was driven primary by falling global interest rates, acute geopolitical conflict, and aggressive purchases by central banks worldwide. All these influences, to varying degrees, are projected to be active in 2025 as well.

Platinum added 1.7% today and lost 10% in 2024. Palladium picked up 1.5% today but shed 17% last year.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $29.70 to $2,658.90; silver climbed 68 cents to $29.62; platinum rose $14.90 to $980.90; and palladium advanced $13.50 to $916.40 an ounce.

12/30/2024: Gold slides in thin trade

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.4% in thin trade to hold above $2,606 despite falling Treasury yields as the dollar crept higher and traders squared their year-end books. Silver dropped 1.9% to finish at $29.11 an ounce.

The dollar rose 0.1% against a basket of major rivals, remaining near a two-year high on expectations the Fed will slow its unwinding of interest rates in 2025. The buck is up around 6.6% this year, driven by the relative strength of the US economy versus its peers.

A strong dollar creates headwinds for gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies, reducing demand overseas.

Gold’s slide was backstopped by a sharp drop in benchmark 10-year Treasury yields. Yields jumped in recent weeks on worries that upbeat US economic data was reviving inflation. But the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, was weaker than expected in November, quelling reflationary fears and easing bond yields.

Lower yields typically support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Bullion has risen around 27% this year behind aggressive buying global central banks, lower interest rates in most major economies, and extreme geopolitical turmoil because of wars in Ukraine and Gaza. The same drivers are in place for 2025.

Platinum lost 1.6% while palladium inched up less than 0.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold slipped $11.10 to $2,606.10; silver shed 55 cents to $29.11; platinum fell $15.10 to $902.40; and palladium added 60 cents, to 894.20 an ounce.

12/27/2024: Gold slips on rising yields

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.8% to close near $2,617 in thin trade as rising Treasury yields and worries about the potentially inflationary policies of the incoming Trump administration pressured alternative stores of value. Bullion slipped 0.4% for the holiday-shortened week but remains 28% higher for the year. Silver dropped 1.3% to end at $29.66, unchanged for the week.

The US trade deficit jumped nearly 5% in November to stay near an all-time high as Americans bought foreign goods ahead of the tariffs proposed by Donald Trump. With the US economy much stronger than its peers, the trend is expected to continue into 2025.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept back above 4.6% as concerns remain about sticky inflation despite last week’s surprisingly soft PCE index, which grew just 0.1% in November. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

President-elect Trump’s proposals to levy huge tariffs on major US trading partners are widely expected to raise prices on imported goods and raw materials, rekindling inflation. In addition, his promised deportation of unskilled workers is expected to reduce the supply of cheap labor, especially for farmers, further adding to costs passed along to consumers.

Despite recent pullbacks, gold’s record-setting rally in 2024 is widely forecast to extend well into 2025 and perhaps beyond. Aggressive buying by global central banks and extreme volatility in the Middle East and Ukraine have provided strong support this year and will continue to do so. Plus, the uncertainty surrounding Trump policies is projected to drive additional demand for safe havens.

Platinum fell 2.9% for a weekly loss of 1%. Palladium gained 1.6% today but dipped 0.4% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $21.60 to $2,617.20; silver slid 39 cents to $29.66; platinum fell $27.30 to $924.90; and palladium added $15.10, to $921.50 an ounce.

12/26/2024: Gold gains on haven inflows

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.7% to close near $2,639 on safe-haven inflows as geopolitical tensions rose and Treasury yields and the dollar retreated in light post-holiday trading. Silver added 0.1% to finish at $30.05.

Russia stepped up its aggression against Ukraine on Christmas day, attacking energy systems and major cities with drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic rockets. The apparent goal was to damage the power grid and shut off heat and electricity during the winter months. In response, President Biden asked the Department of Defense to surge additional weapons into Ukraine.

Separately, the government of Finland accused Russia of deploying a shadow fleet of ships to disrupt the infrastructure of NATO nations that support Ukraine. The accusation came after a fourth submarine data cable was mysteriously cut in the Baltic.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back slightly as investors shifted to the perceived safety of government debt. Lower yields help gold by decreasing the opportunity cost of holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar dipped nearly 0.2%, supporting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium fell 2.2% and 1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $18.18 to $2,638.80; silver added 4 cents, to $30.05; platinum dropped $20.60 to $937.85; and pa palladium shed $8.90 to $929.40 an ounce.

12/20/2024: Gold jumps on softer inflation

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold jumped 1.4% to close near $2,629 as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated after the PCE index showed softer inflation in November, shifting the rate-cut calculus for 2025. Bullion still fell 0.9% for the week. Silver added 2% to finish at $29.66 but suffered a 3.4% weekly loss.

The personal consumption index rose merely 0.1% in November, the least in three months and half of most forecasts, breaking the gradual uptrend in inflation that has bedeviled the Fed since the summer. The so-called core rate, less food and energy, also rose just 0.1%. The PCE is the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge.

Commenting after the Fed’s rate cut earlier this week, Jerome Powell signaled a wait-and-see attitude toward further reductions, citing a rebound in inflation and still-strong job market. As a result, traders began pricing in just two cuts in 2025, with the second coming next December. The dollar and Treasury yields surged on the changed outlook, pressuring the gold price.

But today’s surprisingly soft PCE print shifted the rate view again. Fed fund futures now project another quarter-point cut in March rather than May, and the odds have increased for a third cut by December.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back from a six month high to just above 4.5%, boosting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar dropped 0.7% against major rivals after hitting a two-year high yesterday, but still rose 0.7% on the week. Gold typically trades inversely with the buck because is denominated in dollars for overseas trade.

Gold’s sizable gains were capped by rekindled risk appetite. All three major US stock indexes jumped 1.5% after the PCE data on the renewed prospect of lower interest rates next year.

Platinum rose 1.4% today but still slipped 0.3% this week. Palladium added 3.1% on the day but lost 1% on the week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $36.50 to $2,628.70; silver surged 57 cents to $29.66; platinum picked up $12.90 to $934.40; and palladium advanced $28.35 to $925.45 an ounce.

12/19/2024: Gold slides further on rate view

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 1.7% to close near $2,592 as robust US data reinforced the Fed’s decision to slow interest rate cuts in 2025. Almost all of bullion’s drop came late yesterday following the Fed’s hawkish policy statement, which sharply boosted Treasury yields and the dollar. Silver fell 4.3% to finish at $29.09, with most of this loss coming yesterday.

At the end of its two-day policy meeting yesterday, the Fed cut interest rates by a quarter-point, as expected. But it also delivered a hawkish update to its dot-plot forecast, calling for just two quarter-point cuts in 2025, down from four in the September update.

Citing unusually strong US economic data and low unemployment, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said the rate cut was “a close call” and suggested that any future reductions will occur on a wait-and-see basis.

Data released today underscored the Fed’s desire for caution. GDP in Q3 came in even stronger than previously estimated. The economy grew 3.1% from July through September, marking its second consecutive quarter above 3%. Meanwhile, jobless claims fell more than expected last week, signaling resilience in the labor market.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields surged to a two-month high near 4.6% over the past two sessions, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar strengthened for a second day, adding another 0.3% to yesterday’s 1.1% rally on the prospect of fewer rate cuts in 2025. A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $44.30 to $2,592.20; silver plunged $1.32 to $29,09; platinum slipped $6.90 to $925.70; and p0alladium shed $4.30 to $915.30 an ounce.

12/18/2024: Gold tumbles after hawkish Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.3% to close under $2,637 ahead of the Fed’s decision on interest rates. The World Spot price then tumbled another $40 to less than $2,595 after the Fed delivered a hawkish statement about future policy decisions. Silver fell 0.3% to close at $30.41 before the Fed, then another 85 cents after, with the World Spot price stabilizing around $29.52 an ounce.

As expected, the Fed delivered a quarter-point rate cut, bringing its benchmark down to $4.25%-4.5%. In the accompanying policy statement, the central bank indicated it would slow the pace of future rate cuts, given recent upticks in inflation and stable unemployment. The uncertain economic impact of the incoming Trump administration, with its potentially inflationary plan of massive tariffs, added to the Fed’s wait-and-see posture.

The Fed’s revised dot-plot of future rates now shows only two cuts penciled in for 2025, fewer than the four reflected in the September dot-plot.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields jumped above 4.5% after the Fed meeting, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking with yields, the dollar surged more than 1% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive in other currencies, reducing demand overseas.

Gold’s retreat is largely viewed as a temporary consolidation after record-high gains this year. Bullion remains strongly supported by aggressive central bank purchases, extreme geopolitical turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East, and the general trend toward monetary easing in global central banks.

Platinum and palladium fell 1.5% and 1.4%, respectively.

At the New York spot close; gold slid $7.90 to $2,636.50; silver dropped 16 cents to $30.41; platinum shed $14.40 to $927.10; and palladium lost $13 to $919.60 an ounce.