AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

11/27/2024: Gold rises for second session

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rebounded for a second session, adding 0.7% to close near $2,640, as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated on concerns about Trump tariffs amidst a raft of generally upbeat US data. Bullion had fallen 3.4% on Monday after Israel agreed to a ceasefire with Hezbollah, draining some of its safe-haven premium. Silver slid 0.9% to finish at $30.11 an ounce.

The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, the PCE index, rose 0.2% in October, lifting the 12-month inflation rate to 2.3% from 2.2% in September. The core rate, less food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month, nudging the 12-month rate to 2.8% from 2.7%.

The increase, in line with forecasts, is widely considered a blip that will not deter the Fed from cutting interest rates by a quarter-point in December. The odds of a cut held fast at 67%, according to CME FedWatch.

The US economy grew 2.8% in Q3, according to revised figures released by the government, with consumer spending leading the way by expanding 3.5%. Initial jobless claims dipped to a 7-month low last week, but the number of ongoing claimants rose to the highest level since 2018, meaning new jobs are scarce. And US manufacturing remains in a slump, with orders for durable goods increasing 0.2% last month, less than half of most forecasts.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to the lowest level in a month as investors, facing the uncertain consequences of President-elect Trump’s aggressive tariff plans, shifted into the perceived safe of government bonds. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it for safety.

Earlier this week, Trump said he plans to levy 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada “on day one,” along with 10% on China. Goldman Sachs economists estimate the tariffs would increase PCE inflation by nearly 1%.

Tracking lower with yield, the dollar dropped 0.9% against major rivals, boosting bullion by making it cheaper in other currencies, boosting overseas demand.

Platinum added 0.4% while palladium lost 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $19.60 to $2,639.90; silver slipped 28 cents to $30.11; platinum picked up $3.60 to $926.90; and palladium dipped $6.70 to $982.80 an ounce.

11/26/2024: Gold gains on Trump tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.1% despite rising Treasury yields and a stronger dollar as inflationary concerns over President-elect Trump’s tariffs overcame diminished safe-haven demand due to an Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire. Silver added 0.7% to finish at $30.42 an ounce.

Israel’s security cabinet has agreed to a ceasefire with the Iran-backed military group Hezbollah, lowering somewhat the geopolitical risks brought on by the Gaza war.

While gold initially slipped on the ceasefire news, it quickly bounced back to a slight gain on Trump’s announcements of 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico, intended to pressure them to prevent immigration, along with 10% on China. The aggressive tariff plan has rekindled worries about trade wars and inflation.

Meanwhile, the minutes from the Fed’s meeting in early November showed “many” officials advocating a gradual approach to reducing interest rates, citing renewed inflation concerns and uncertainty over the so-called neutral rate, which neither promotes nor retards economic growth.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields edged back over 4.3% on the tariff plans, limiting gold’s gains by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields the dollar picked up 0.1% against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum rose 1.4% while palladium added 0.8%.

At the New York spot close: gold edged up $3.50 to $2,620.30’ silver rose 21 cents to $30.42; platinum picked up $13.20 to $925.60; and palladium advanced $7.40 to $989.50 an ounce.

11/25/2024: Gold tumbles on profit-taking

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 3.4% to close under $2,617 despite pullbacks in Treasury yields and the dollar as news of a possible ceasefire in Lebanon and some unwinding of the Trump-trade prompted investors to take profits from bullion’s five-day rally. Silver shed 3.5% to end at $30.21 an ounce.

Israel’s cabinet will meet tomorrow to approve a ceasefire with Hezbollah, according to a senior Israeli official. Hostilities with the Iran-backed military group had increased dramatically in the past few months as a second front in the Gaza war. The agreement would be the first substantial de-escalation of tensions in the troubled region since the war began.

Meanwhile, some of the so-called Trump trade began to unwind after the nomination of Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary settled market nerves about the deficit. President-elect Trump’s aggressive policies on tariffs, tax cuts, and immigration are widely expected to increase the federal deficit while rekindling inflation, driving yields and the dollar to multi-month highs. A savvy veteran of financial markets, Bessent is expected to maintain fiscal discipline while helping to blunt the inflationary consequences of tariffs.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell back under 4.3% after the Bessent nomination and ceasefire news, while the dollar tracked lower by 0.7%.

Platinum and palladium fell 3% and 3.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold fell $93.10 to $2,626.80; silver shed $1.10 to $30.21; platinum retreated $29.50 to $940.25; and palladium dropped $37.20 to $982.10 an ounce.

11/22/2024: Gold has best week in 2 years

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied another 1.4% to close near $2,710 as the escalating Russia-Ukraine war and struggling Eurozone economy drove investors into safe havens despite upbeat US data and a shifting interest rate outlook. Bullion surged 5.6% this week for its biggest weekly jump in nearly two years. Silver rose 1.3% today and 3.1% this week to finish at $31.31 an ounce.

The HCPB flash Eurozone composite PMI fell to a 10-month low of 48.1 in November, with the workhorse economies of Germany and France slowing more than expected. Services fell to 49.2 while manufacturing retreated to 45.2, where readings under 50 indicate contraction.

Meanwhile, the S&P US services index rose to a 32-month high of 57 this month, driven by optimism about lower interest rates and expectations of a business-friendly Trump administration.

The dollar rose 0.4% against major rivals as the euro weakened and forex traders speculated that the Fed may pursue less aggressive rate-cuts in coming months. Resilience in the economy and the prospect of inflationary tariffs and tax cuts under President Trump have prompted Fed officials to voice caution about monetary easing in recent weeks.

Fed fund futures traders now put the odds of a December rate cut at just 56%, down from more than 80% little more than a week ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back as investors sought the perceived safety of government bonds because of geopolitical turmoil and economic weakness in the Eurozone.

The sharp escalation of tension between Russia and Ukraine has dominated the markets this week, propelling gold higher by nearly $144 an ounce. With President Biden’s permission, Ukraine fired US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time. In response, Putin lowered the official threshold for nuclear retaliation to include attacks using conventional weapons supplied by nuclear powers.

Platinum added 0.1% today and 2.7% this week. Palladium dropped 2.4% today but still gained 8% this week.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $37.80 to $2,7979.90; silver rose 490 cents to $31.31; platinum picked up a buck, to $966.20; and palladium shed $25.60 to $1,019.30 an ounce.

11/21/2024: Gold rallies to new 1-week high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose another 1.7% to close above $2,672 despite upbeat jobless claims and increases in Treasury yields and the dollar as escalating turmoil in Ukraine and the Middle East drove safe-haven demand. It was bullion’s fourth straight day of gains, taking it to a new one-week high. Silver slipped 0.1% to finish at $30.91 an oune.

First-time jobless claims fell by 6,000 to 219,000 last week, the lowest level in seven months, as employers are increasingly cautious about laying workers off. But the total number of ongoing claims rose exceeded 1.9 million for the first time since 2018, excluding pandemic years, meaning the unemployed are having difficulty finding new jobs.

Russia fired a barrage of long-range missiles into Ukraine in an initial retaliation for similar action by Ukraine earlier this week. Putin also lowered the threshold for using nuclear warheads in response to attacks with conventional weapons, substantially increasing the risk of a wider war.

Separately, the US vetoed a new cease-fire resolution for Gaza.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields ticked up slightly as traders speculated that the falling first-time jobless claims may slow the Fed’s rate-cut cycle. Fed fund futures posit a 59% likelihood of a quarter-point reduction in December, down from 80% little more than a week ago.

The dollar rose 0.4% to a fresh one-year high against major rivals on safe-haven inflows because geopolitical tensions and the shifting rate outlook.

Platinum slid 0.7% while palladium rose by the same amount.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $45 to $2,672.10; silver slipped 3 cents to $30.91; platinum dropped $7 to $966; and palladium picked up $7.60, to $1,044.90 an ounce.

11/20/2024: Gold rises for third day

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose another 0.9% to close at $2,650 despite rebounds in Treasury yields and the dollar as escalating tensions between Ukraine and Russia pushed investors into safe havens. Bullion’s third straight day of gains brought it o a one-week high. Silver slipped 1% to finish at $30.90 an ounce.

Geopolitical tension escalated this week after Ukraine fired long-range missiles into Russia for the first time, prompting Vladimir Putin to lower the threshold for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons. Gold is often bought as a hedge against global turmoil.

The dollar rebound from three lower sessions by adding 0.4% against major rivals on the combination of safe-haven inflows because of Russia and speculation that the Fed might be less inclined to keep lowering interest rates.

Upbeat recent US data and concerns that President-elect Trump’s protectionist economic policies may prove inflationary have caused Fed funds traders to lower their bets on a December rate cut to 63%, down from more than 80% a week ago.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also reversed their recent slide, pushing back above 4.4%.

Platinum and palladium lost 1.4% and 1.5%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $22.90 to $2,650; silver slipped 30 cents to $30.90; platinum shed $14 to $959.20; and palladium dropped $15.20 to $1,022 an ounce.

11/19/2024: Gold rises on Russia tension

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rose 0.6% to close above $2,627 as heightened tension in the Russia-Ukraine conflict drove global demand for safe-haven assets. Bullion has gained nearly 2.5% in the past two sessions. Silver added 0.2% to finish at $31.21 an ounce.

Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a revised nuclear doctrine stating that any major ariel attack on Russia could result in the use of nuclear weapons. The shift comes after Ukraine fired US-made long-range missiles into Russia for the first time.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back under 4.4% as investors sought safety in government bonds. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Safe-haven currencies like the Swiss franc, yen, and US dollar also saw inflows, with the buck rising around 0.1% against major rivals.

Despite last week’s election-induced selloff, gold remains supported by strong central bank buying, ongoing geopolitical volatility, and expanding deficits in the US and other major nations. Gold fell sharply last week after Donald Trump’s re-election fueled a massive rally in the dollar, pressuring alternative stores of value.

Platinum and palladium picked up 0.6% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $16.50 to $2,627.10; silver added a nickel, to $31.21; platinum rose $5.40 to $974.50; and palladium advanced $29.10 to $1,037.30 an ounce.

11/18/2024: Gold surges on haven demand

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.8% to close above $2,610 as Treasury yields and the dollar retreated while investors sought safety from increasing uncertainty in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. It was bullion’s first advance in six sessions. Silver rose 2.4% to finish at $31.10 an ounce.

The Biden administration will allow Ukraine to use long-range US missiles to strike deeper in Russia, adding a new and potentially dangerous element to the conflict. The change in policy comes in response to Russia’s deployment of North Korean ground troops.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields pulled back as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of government bonds. Lower yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds as a safe-haven asset.

Tracking with yields, the dollar shed 0.4% against major rivals, it second down session after hitting a one-year high last Thursday. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making them less expensive in other currencies, boosting demand overseas.

Oil prices jumped more than 3% on the Biden missile decision, which would enable Ukraine to reach crude production facilities in Russia, a major oil producer. Gold often trades in sympathy with oil as a hedge against energy-related inflation.

Platinum and palladium rose 2.9% and 6.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $44.90 to $2,610.60; silver rose 72 cents to $3.10; platinum picked up $27.40 to $967.20; and palladium jumped $64.90 to $1,008.20 an ounce.

11/15/2024: Gold has worst week in 3 years

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.1% to close at $2,566 after surprisingly strong US data and hawkish comments from Jerome Powell shifted the outlook for interest rates. Bullion fell 4.5% for the week, its biggest weekly retreat in three years, following the dollar’s sharp rally on the re-election of Donald Trump. Silver slid 0.5% to finish at $30.37 an ounce, posting a weekly decline of 3.2%.

Retail sales increased 0.4% in October, more than forecast, and September’s total was revised up to 0.8%, twice the rise initially reported. With retail sales contributing the lion’s share of consumer spending, which itself comprises 70% of GDP, the data signal strong underlying momentum in the US economy.

Separately, the New York Empire State index of business conditions, an important gauge of manufacturing activity, surged in November to the highest level in nearly three years.

The upbeat reports come one day after Fed Chair Jerome Powell, speaking to business leaders in Dallas, said the economy’s current strength means the Fed does not “need to be in a hurry to lower rates.”

Fed fund futures traders have lowered their bets on a December rate cut, dropping the odds to 60% from 72% yesterday and 86% one month ago.

The dollar edged up slightly to the highest level in more than a year as traders brace for a slower cycle of rate cuts and the possibility of rekindled inflation because of Trump tariffs. A stronger dollar weighs on gold by making it more expensive in other currencies, stifling demand overseas.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields also ticked higher, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Platinum dropped 0.1% today and 2.9% this week. Palladium lost 1.9% for a weekly loss of 5.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.20 to $2,566; silver slipped 14 cents to $30.37; platinum edged down $1.10 to $941.15; and palladium shed $17.60 to $943.30 an ounce.

11/14/2024: Gold dips as dollar rises

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slid 0.5% to close near $2,568 as wholesale inflation ticked up in October and the dollar extended its impressive post-election rally. Silver dipped 0.3% to finish at $30.51 an ounce.

The producer price index rose 0.2% in October, as expected, lifting the 12-month wholesale inflation rate from 1.9% in September to 2.3%, the highest level in four months. The core rate, less food and energy, rose 0.3% for the month and 3.5% for the past 12 months, up from 3.3% in September.

The dollar continued its aggressive climb, adding another 0.2% to reach a new one-year high against major rivals, as traders weighed the effects of reinflation and the coming Trump administration on the Fed’s ability to reduce interest rates further. Trump’s promise of large, blanket tariffs is widely viewed as inflationary.

A rising dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Cushioning gold’s drop, benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slipped from four-month highs as stock markets receded on the shifting outlook for interest rates, prompting demand for safe havens. Lower yields reduce the opportunity cost for holding gold instead of bonds.

Platinum added 0.3% while palladium subtracted 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $16.20 to $2,568.20; silver slipped 8 cents to $30.51; platinum picked up $2.65 to $942.25; and palladium dipped ^.30 to $925.70 an ounce.