AGE Daily Gold Update

AGE Daily Gold Update presents a recap on today's action in the precious metals markets. View archives.

3/28/2025: Gold gains on core PCE

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.6% to just under $3,074, yet another new all-time high, after rising core inflation, soft consumer spending, and tumbling consumer sentiment drove investors into safe havens. Bullion rallied 1.8% for the week to notch its fourth straight weekly rise and eighteenth record-high price. Silver dropped 1.3% to $34 but still gained 3.1% for the week.

The core PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 0.4% in February, more than forecast and the biggest increase in 13 months. The 12-month rate is 2.8%. JP Moran Chase raised its core PCE forecast to 3.1% this year.

At the same time, consumer spending rose less than expected, inflaming concerns of stagflation, which occurs when prices are rising while the economy contracts. The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow tool projects real GDP to decline 2.8% this quarter.

Consumer sentiment plummeted to the lowest level in two years in March, according to the University of Michigan survey, as Americans become increasingly concerned that Trump trade policies will stoke inflation and threaten jobs.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields fell under 4.3% as investors shifted toward the perceived safety of government debt. Tracking with yields, the dollar lost 0.3% against major rivals.

Platinum slipped 0.2% today but rose 0.3% this week. Palladium added 0.5% for a weekly rise of 2%.

New York spot gold gained $18.50 to $3,073.70; silver fell 44 cents to $34; platinum dipped 2.45 to $982.45; and palladium added $5.35, to $979.15 an ounce.

3/27/2025: Gold sets new record on tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold rallied 1.3% to close at a new record high above $3,060 after additional Trump tariffs escalated trade war fears, fueling safe-haven demand. It was the seventeenth record close this year for bullion. Silver jumped 1.2% to finish at $34.44 an ounce.

President Trump announced permanent 25% tariffs on all auto imports, igniting threats of retaliation from automakers around the world. The new levies begin the day after Trump's so-called "reciprocal" tariffs directed toward all trading partners.

US and European equities fell on the tariff news, pushing investors toward safety.

The dollar fell 0.4% against major rivals on concerns that trade wars will undercut US growth and raise consumer prices. A falling dollar boosts gold by making it cheaper overseas.

Goldman Sachs raised its forecast for the year-end gold price to $3,300, up from $3,100, citing aggressive central bank and ETF purchases.

Platinum picked up 0.7% while palladium was virtually flat.

At the New York spot close: gold surged $39.30 to $3,060.20; silver rose 41 cents to $34.44; platinum added $7.20, to $985.35; and palladium was virtually unchanged at $973.80 an ounce.

3/26/2025: Gold dips on dollar, yields

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold inched down less than 0.1% to close under $3,021 as Treasury yields and the dollar rebounded after better-than-expected durable goods data. But worries about Trump tariffs kept bullion near recent record highs. Silver added 0.1% to finish at $34.03 an ounce.

Orders for long-lasting goods jumped nearly 1% in February, far more than forecast, with orders for primary metals and appliances rising for the second straight month. While the headline gain was impressive, the bulk of the orders came from US manufacturers rushing to beat the higher prices caused by Trump tariffs on steel and aluminum.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly on the upbeat data, weighing on gold by increasing the opportinity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

The dollar bounced off recent lows to gain 0.4% against major rivals, pressuring gold by making it pricier in other currencies.

St. Louis Fed president Alberto Musalem said today that the inflationary consequences of tariffs are unlikely to be as transitory as the White House and Jerome Powell have said. Research at the St. Louis Fed has concluded that the tariffs announced so far may increase inflation by 1.2%.

The markets await this Friday's release of the PCE index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, for more clues about central bank policy.

Bullion has largely held its record gains because investors remain spooked by the turbulence caused by aggressive yet uncertain trade policies. New tariffs on autos are supposed to be announced today, but details so far have been contradictory.

Platinum slid 0.9% while palladium rose 2%.

At the New York spot close: gold dipped $2.80 to $3,020.90; silver added 3 cents, to $34.03; platinum shed $9.35 to $978.15; and palladium picked up $19.90 to $973.70 an ounce.

3/25/2025: Gold rises as confidence falls

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.4% to close near $3,024 on safe-haven inflows as faltering consumer confidence and ongoing tariff worries undercut Treasury yields and the dollar, boosting alternative assets. Silver surged 2.2% to finish at $34 an ounce.

Consumer confidence has plummeted in response to disruptive trade policies and renewed concerns about inflation. The Conference Board's survey sank to the lowest level in four years this month, with expectations for the future dropping to a 12-year low.

Worries about stagflation have grown in recent weeks as economists project reduced economic growth, higher unemployment, and rising inflation because of the increasing likelihood of damaging trade wars.

The Fed reinforced this concern in the policy statement after its recent meeting, uniformly forecasting higher unemployment and higher inflation due to tariffs.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields receded as investors returned to the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields lift gold by reducing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar slid 0.1% against major rivals, supporting gold and other commodities by making them cheaper in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium rose 1.5% and 0.6%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold rose $10.60 to $3,023.70; silver surged 74 cents to $34; platinum picked up $14.60 to $987.50; and palladium rose $.10 to $953.80 an ounce.

3/24/2025: Gold falls on shifting tariffs

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold slipped 0.2% to close above $3,013 after a softer stance on potential tariffs boosted stocks, yields, and the dollar, eroding demand for safe-haven assets. Silver shed 0.1% to finish at $33.23 an ounce.

The White House said today that its aggressive "reciprocal" tariffs on all trading partners, scheduled to begin on April 2, will probably be softened to exclude a variety of sectors. While the details are unclear, the shifting stance improved risk appetite.

All three major US stock indexes rallied with relief. The Down and S&P 500 picked up more than 1.2% and 1.5%, respectively, while the Nasdaq jumped more than 2%.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose above 4.3% as investors shifted away from safety toward risk. Rising yields weigh on gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking higher with yields, the dollar added 0.2% to reach a two-week high against major rivals, pressuring gold and other commodities by making them pricier overseas.

Platinum and palladium lost 0.7% and 1.8%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold dropped $5.10 to $3,013.10; silver slipped 3 cents to $33.23; platinum shed $7.30 to $972.90; and palladium lost $17.45 to $947.70 an ounce.

3/21/2025: Gold posts third weekly rise

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold fell 0.7% to hold above $3,018 as upticks in Treasury yields and the dollar prompted traders to take profits from yesterday's rally to a new all-time high of $3,040. Bullion still rose 1.1% for the week, notching its third straight weekly win. Silver dropped 2.4% to $32.99, posting a weekly loss of 1.1%.

President Trump hinted today that he would be flexible about his aggressive reciprocal tariffs on all trading partners, scheduled to begin early next month. Wall Street cheered the news, with all three major indexes shifting from losses to small gains.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields rose slightly on the shift toward risk appetite, pressuring gold by increasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking with yields, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals. A stronger dollar weighs on gold and other commodities by making them more expensive on other currencies.

Gold has now risen 16% and set 16 new records so far this year, driven by uncertainty over President Trump's disruptive trade and domestic policies.

Platinum fell 0.5% today and 1.3% this week. Palladium rose 2.2% but still incurred a weekly loss of 0.7%.

At the New York spot close: gold lost $21.80 to $3,018.20; silver slid 80 cents to $32.99; platinum shed 5.20 to $980.20; and palladium picked up $21.05 to $960.05 an ounce.

3/20/2025: Gold rises to another record

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold added 0.1% to close at $3,040, another new record high, as Treasury yields fell further despite some upbeat US data and a stronger dollar. Bullion has now rallied more than 16% this year while achieving 16 record closes. Silver shed 0.6% to finish at $33.79 an ounce.

The crucial housing market showed signs of stabilizing after sales of previously owned homes increased 4.2% in February, more than expected, with rising supply bringing buyers back into the market. The increase came despite a December drop in contracts, which typically front-run sales by a couple of months.

First time jobless claims rose slightly last week, suggesting the labor market remained solid this month despite a dimmer outlook brought on by trade wars and massive cuts in government payrolls. But continuing claims rose 33,000 to hover near the three-year high hit in January.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields dipped further on continuing demand for the perceived safety of government debt because of tariff uncertainties. Falling yields help gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Capping gold's rise, the dollar added 0.3% against major rivals, lifted by the Fed's messaging earlier this week that it is in no hurry to cut interest rates again. A rising buck weighs on gold and other commodities by making them pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium dropped 1.1% and 2.9%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $4.10 to $3,040; silver slid 19 cents to $33.79; platinum dropped $11.20 to $985.80; and palladium shed $28 to $939.10 an ounce.

3/19/2025: Gold inches higher after Fed

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold edged up less than 0.1% to hold at a record high near $3,036 as the Fed signaled two more rate cuts this year despite concerns about higher inflation and slower economic growth. Silver shed 1.7% to finish at $33.98 an ounce.

At the close of its two-day meeting on monetary policy, the Fed left interest rates unchanged, as expected. But the central bankers said uncertainty about the economic outlook has increased, given sticky inflation and unsettling Trump administration trade policies.

Notably, committee members are still penciling in two quarter-point rate cuts for this year. Fed fund futures trading lifted the odds of a June cut to 62% from 57% yesterday.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields crept lower on the rate cut prospects, lifting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

The dollar pared gains after the Fed decision but still rose 0.3% against major rivals, capping gold's rise by making it pricier in other currencies.

Platinum and palladium dropped 0.6% and 0.7%, respectively.

At the New York spot close: gold gained 80 cents to $3,035.90; silver lost 60 cents to $33.98; platinum slid 5.60 to $997; and palladium shed ^.50 to $967.10 an ounce.

3/18/2025: Gold surges to new record high

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold surged 1.2% to close above $3,035 at another new all-time high as escalating turmoil in the Middle East and worries about Trump trade policies stoked safe-haven inflows. Bullion has now risen 15% so far this year and notched 14 new record highs. Silver jumped 1.5% to $34.58 an ounce.

Israel resumed bombardment of Gaza, launching military strikes on Hamas targets that reportedly killed 400 people. After a two-month ceasefire, the attacks risk plunging the region back into full-scale war.

Wall Street tumbled today, with the Dow and S&P 500 losing 0.5% and 1%, respectively, while the Nasdaq shed 1.5% on concerns that aggressive tariffs will push the US into recession. President Trump acknowledged the possibility but said it will be worth it to restructure the economy.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields slid further under 4.3% on the shift toward safety, supporting gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds.

Tracking lower with yields the dollar slid 0.1% as the euro rallied on Germany's approval of a major spending program on infrastructure and defense.

Platinum and palladium slid 0.2% and less than 0.1%, respectively.

At the New York spot close; gold gained $35.10 to $3,035.10; silver rallied 51 cents to $34,.58; platinum dipped $2.10 to $1,002.60; and palladium edged down 45 cents to $973.60 an ounce.

3/17/2025: Gold reclaims $3,000 on data

Source: Bill Musgrave, American Gold Exchange

Austin — New York spot gold gained 0.2% to close at $3,000 as Treasury yields and the dollar slipped on weak US data ahead of this week's Fed meeting. Silver shed 0.3% to finish at $34.07 an ounce.

Retail sales rose a meager 0.2% in February, far below forecasts of 0.6%, as consumers hit pause over the uncertainty surrounding new Trump administration policies on trade and immigration. But the so-called "control group" that includes building materials, autos, and gasoline rose 1%, lending hope for solid GDP growth.

Homebuilder sentiment tumbled to a seven-month low in March as tariffs on imports hiked construction costs.

The OECD warned today that Trump tariffs will slow economic growth in the US, Canada, and Mexico while increasing inflation. It projects the US economy to expand by 2.2% this year, down from 2.4% in its previous forecast.

Benchmark 10-year Treasury yields retreated to just under 4.3% on the soft data as investors sought the perceived safety of government debt. Falling yields support gold by decreasing the opportunity cost for holding it instead of bonds for safety.

Tracking lower with yields, the dollar shed 0.3% on concerns that tariffs could tip the US toward recession, prompting rate cuts from the Fed later this year. A weaker dollar supports gold and other commodities by making the cheaper overseas.

The Fed is almost certain to leave interest rates unchanged when it meets this week to discuss monetary policy. Market observers will scour the ensuing policy statement for clues about forward guidance.

Platinum slid 0.5% while palladium added 1.1%.

At the New York spot close: gold gained $5.50 to $3,000; silver slipped 11 cents to $34.07; platinum shed $5.40 to $1,004.50; and p0alladium picked up $10.85 to $937.15 an ounce.